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Daily Update
Yet another regional Fed manufacturing survey warns of economic contraction. On Monday, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell further into the contractionary economic territ...
Rate Increase Expectations Are Starting To Fall
Rate increase expectations for the Fed are starting to fall rapidly as recent evidence suggests inflationary pressures are starting to wane. On Friday, stocks jumped more than...
Market Fears Subside On Powell’s Testimony
Market fears subsided a bit over the past couple of days as Powell testified before Congress. While Powell believes a recession is not a major risk, other indicators and even...
Powell Admits Possibility of Recession; Dudley Claims It’s Inevitable
Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday morning. He reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to lowering inflation but admits that achieving a soft landing wil...
When Will “The Bottom” Be In? History Points to the Fed
The trillion-dollar question on nearly every investor's mind lately is “When will the market bottom be in, and how will I know?” Unfortunately, w...
Is A Tradable Bottom In Sight?
The stock market is having its worst week since March 2020 when the Pandemic first rocked the economy. This time the aggressive monetary policy is worrying investors. While th...
Philadelphia Fed, Like Atlanta Fed, Signals Weakness
On Wednesday, the Atlanta Fed revised its Q2 growth estimate to 0.0%. Yesterday, the Philadelphia Fed Index fell into economic contraction territory. It was the first time sin...
75bps Of Shock and Awe Calms Markets
While the WSJ telegraphed the potential for a 75bps rate hike on Tuesday, the Fed's decision to raise the Fed Funds rate by 75bps to 1.50% at yesterday's FOMC meeting shocked...
Inflation Expectations Are Flat- What Gives?
The graph below shows that 5yr yields have risen over 2% in 2022. Many in the media ascribe the yield surge to rising inflation expectations. However, as we offer below, two w...
2yr Treasury Yields Soar
The graph below shows that 2yr Treasury yields rose 0.25% on Friday, the largest one-day change since 2009. On May 31, 2022, the 2yr Treasury yield was 2.54. Today the 2yr Tre...
