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Prices Decline Raising The Odds Of A Rate Cut

Prices Decline Raising The Odds Of A Rate Cut

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 12, 2024 | Daily Market Commentary
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% last month, following 0.0% the prior month and expectations for a 0.1% increase. Core prices rose 0.1%, a tenth below last month’s reading and th...
QT Today: QE Tomorrow

QT Today: QE Tomorrow

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 11, 2024 | Daily Market Commentary
The Fed's balance sheet peaked at $9 billion in April 2022. Today, after two years of Quantitative Tightening (QT), it has fallen to $7.2 trillion. When the Fed embarked o...
Chair Powell Testifies To Congress

Chair Powell Testifies To Congress

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 10, 2024 | Daily Market Commentary
Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to Congress yesterday and updated them with the Fed’s latest views on the economy, inflation, and monetary policy. The Fed has kept rates at current lev...
The Market Is Very Extended But It Can Stay That Way

The Market Is Very Extended But It Can Stay That Way

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 9, 2024 | Daily Market Commentary
A reader asked us how concerned we are about the market’s extension from crucial moving averages. The short answer is we are. But that doesn’t mean we are moving our equity holdings to...
July 31 Is Back On The Markets Calendar With Fridays Jobs Report

July 31 Is Back On The Markets Calendar With Fridays Jobs Report

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 8, 2024 | Daily Market Commentary
A year ago, the Fed Funds futures market thought the Fed would have cut rates two to three times before the July 31, 2024 FOMC meeting. Two weeks ago, the odds of a rate cut at the July 31...
R Star: A Culprit Behind Higher Interest Rates

R Star: A Culprit Behind Higher Interest Rates

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 5, 2024 | Daily Market Commentary
As we shared on Monday, The Fed Funds Rate Is Too High. The biggest...
The Economy Is Normalizing – Whats Next?

The Economy Is Normalizing – Whats Next?

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 3, 2024 | Daily Market Commentary
Tuesday’s JOLTs report is one of many data points showing that the labor market is near or back to the prevailing conditions before the pandemic. It’s not just JOLTs and the labor mark...
The Fed Funds Rate Is Too High

The Fed Funds Rate Is Too High

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 2, 2024 | Daily Market Commentary
Let’s step back and ignore the last four years in which the economy cratered with the onset of the pandemic and then boomed on massive monetary and fiscal stimulus. Let’s also try to i...
Supercore PCE Is The Weakest Since August

Supercore PCE Is The Weakest Since August

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 1, 2024 | Daily Market Commentary
Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues breathed a sigh of relief Friday morning as the PCE inflation report was weaker than expected. The headline PCE price index was +0.0% versus expectatio...
Cognitive Dissonance Is On Full Display

Cognitive Dissonance Is On Full Display

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 28, 2024 | Daily Market Commentary
The recent Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey data show a state of cognitive dissonance among U.S. citizens. Cognitive dissonance occurs when a person believes in two contradictor...