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Daily Update
The Fed is clearly more hawkish than they were at the last meeting. Accordingly, with the Fed Funds market now pricing in two rate hikes by year’s end, we should be armed with data...
Warsh And The FOMC Hold Steady
Presiding over his first Fed meeting, Kevin Warsh and the FOMC held rates at 3.50%-3.75%. Such was the fourth consecutive hold following a series of rate cuts. The decision for Warsh...
Are Equity Markets Priced For A Rate Hike?
The equity market spent early 2026 with wavering odds of a rate cut before year-end. With improving labor data and high inflation, that assumption is becoming untenable. While the Fed...
Gold Investors Are Likely Confused
Since the Iranian conflict started on February 28, 2026, gold has fallen by about 25%. The decline is shown in the graphic below, but more importantly, we highlight FinViz’s rationa...
Peace In Iran: Can A Deal Drive A Second Half Rally?
Markets rallied late last week on headlines that a US-Iran peace agreement is close. While the politics are complicated and any potential agreement is fragile, investors should be thi...
SPCX Is Firing Up: 3 Businesses To Breakdown
After much anticipation, SpaceX (SPCX) begins trading tomorrow. The headlines will focus on the $2 trillion valuation and the likely significant volatility in the price once the SPCX...
Oil Market Opinions Widely Vary
Art Berman wrote an excellent analysis describing the state of the oil market and two distinct messages being debated. The following commentary is from his article:
The CPI Math Driving Inflation Works Two Ways
Simple math suggests that tomorrow’s CPI report for May will likely continue to show high inflation. To compute CPI, the BLS measures gasoline prices during the first three weeks of...
Fed Chair Warsh Faces A Tough Test
New Fed Chairs are often tested early in their terms. For instance, two years after Bernanke took over the Fed, the Financial Crisis kicked into full gear. Janet Yellen was tasked wit...
