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Daily Update
Producer prices (PPI) for April met expectations rising .5%. While .5% is a big monthly increase, it pales compared to March's +1.6% PPI. Core PPI, excluding food and energy,...
Bill Dudley Bashes The Fed
Ex-New York Fed President Bill Dudley seems to have it out for the Fed. Despite spending a decade at the Fed, Bill Dudley has some strong words about what his ex-colleagues ar...
Investor Sentiment Is Horrendous- Is That A Bullish Sign?
Often markets bottom when investor sentiment is poor and peak when it's high. As they say, the markets like to catch as many people offside as possible. Currently, investor se...
Fear is Driving Yields Higher, Not Inflation
Fear, not inflation, is driving bond yields higher despite popular beliefs. The graph below shows that implied inflation expectations derived from TIPS and Nominal Treasury bo...
Fat Tails Scare Investors
The S&P 500 was down seven points this past week. Last week's extreme volatility made it feel much worse. The "fat tails" graph below from the Daily Shot helps better appr...
ETSY Falls Victim to Strapped Consumers
Shares of ETSY plunged yesterday on a poor quarterly earnings report. We are not very concerned about ETSY, per se, but its woes tell a lot about the state of the consumer. ET...
Powell Is In The Batters Box
The consensus is that Jerome Powell and the Fed will raise interest rates by 50bps today and introduce a QT timeline at today's FOMC meeting. It is hard to envision a hawkish...
ISM- Bad News Is Good News?
The national ISM Manufacturing Survey was unexpectedly weaker than expected, as shown below. This should be concerning as the ISM survey is often the first piece of data to si...
Stocks Slump as Amazon Weighs on the Market
Shares of Amazon, the third-largest contributor to the S&P 500, fell over 10% on Friday. A poor earnings report is the culprit. Amazon announced a quarterly loss of $3.8 b...
