In this 09-10-21 issue of “‘Investors Hold Record Allocations Despite Rising Warnings.“
- Market Starts Correction Right On Cue.
- Investors Record Allocations & Rising Warnings
- Beige Book Highlights Fed’s Biggest Problem
- Portfolio Positioning
- Sector & Market Analysis
- 401k Plan Manager
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Market Starts A Correction Right On Cue
“However, in the meantime, the “stairstep” advance continues with fundamentally weak companies making substantial gains as speculation displaces investment in the market. Thus, while prices remain elevated, money flows weaken, suggesting the next downturn is roughly one to two weeks away. So far, those corrections remain limited to the 50-dma, which is approximately 3% lower than Friday’s close, but a 10% correction to the 200-dma remains a possibility.”
That correction started on Monday with the week ending in 5-straight down days which is the worse slide since February.
However, while that sounds terrible, the total decline for the week was just -1.69%. Yes, that’s it, less than 2%. While CNBC probably ran their “Markets In Turmoil” segment, traders were huddled over candles and incense chanting incantations at the Fed for more accommodation.
With sell signals in place, volume rising, and breadth weak, a retest of the 50-dma early next week will not be a surprise. The question will be whether traders show up again, as they have done every other time over the last 6-months to “buy the dip.”
As shown, the market remains well confined to its rising trend with support sitting at the 50-dma. Volatility did pick up late last week as volume spiked suggesting more selling pressure on Monday.
The question is “this time different.” Will the market hold the 50-dma again, or has the risk of a more substantial correction finally caught up with investors.
As noted previously, 5-10% corrections are absolutely normal in any given market year. However, if you didn’t like the 1.69% correction this week, a 10% correction will feel like an all-out “crash.”
Such is why we have repeatedly suggested taking some actions in advance.
Macro Conditions Continue To Deteriorate
Over the last couple of weeks, I noted the deterioration of underlying market conditions. Weakening breadth, lower participation, and negative divergences all suggest risks of a correction. On Thursday, Sentiment Trader provided some additional commentary supporting our concern.
“To differentiate temporary slowdowns from real problems, we look for significant macro deterioration. The Macro Index Model combines 11-diverse indicators to determine the state of the U.S. economy. Stock market investors should be bullish when the Macro Index is above 0.7 and bearish when below or equal to 0.7.
Once the final reports were in for August, the model plunged below 46%, the 2nd-lowest reading of the past decade.“
At the same time, Sentiment Trader noted their Bear Market Probability Indicator also jumped. This model has 5-inputs, namely the unemployment rate, ISM Manufacturing index, yield curve, inflation, and valuations.
“The higher the score, the higher the probability of a bear market in the months ahead. Last May, the model was in the bottom 10% of all months since 1950. This month, it jumped into the top 10% of all months.“
So, what does all of this mean? According to Sentiment Trader, the combination of these two measures should not be overlooked. To wit:
“The chart below shows the spread between the Bear Market Probability and Macro Index models. The higher the spread, the higher the probability of a bear market. The chart shows that the S&P 500’s annualized return is a horrid -17.6% when the spread is above 20% like it is now.”
The point here is that while the market remains exceedingly bullish, there are signs of trouble brewing beneath the surface. Such is why we suggested raising cash levels, adding non-correlated assets, and reducing overall risk.
But as Paul Harvey used to say: “There is more to this story.”
Investor Record Allocations
As noted, there is certainly cause for concern. However, investors aren’t.
Such should be of no surprise after an extended bull market advance with very low volatility. Without any concern for corrections, individuals have increased equity risk levels relative to their overall net worth.
Or, we see the same when we analyze their equity allocations as a percentage of their overall financial assets.
Regardless of the calculations, the message is the same. As we noted in Thursday’s Daily Market Commentary:
“Bob Farrell’s rule #5 states: “The public buys the most at the top and least at the bottom.”
The two charts above speak volumes as to the wisdom of Bob Farrell’s rules. Previous peaks in equity ownership have corresponded with peaks in financial markets.
As the old Wall Street axiom states: “If everyone has already bought, who is left to buy?”
At the moment, however, investors are incredibly confident that markets can only go higher as long as the “Fed” remains accommodative. While there is undoubtedly a substantial argument as to the ability of the Fed to keep markets inflated, there are other “risks” present that could lead to a short-term correction.
An Increasing Number Of Correction Warnings
While investors are carrying record allocations, some of the largest Wall Street banks are worrying. A recent article on Zero Hedge compiled their outlooks. To wit:
“Andrew Sheets warns that equity market internals has continued to follow a “midcycle transition.” That process usually ends with quality stocks, like the FAAMGs, getting hit and poses an outsized risk to the S&P 500 through October.” – Morgan Stanley
“Suvita Subramanian, warned that ‘downside risks remain’ and asking ‘what good news is left?’ Sentiment is all but euphoric with our Sell Side Indicator (see SSI) closer to a sell signal than at any point since 2007.” – Bank of America
Deutsche Bank’s strategists ‘expect an imminent correction‘ even though they see the S&P 500 rising back around current levels by year-end. Some more details on the coming pullback in markets which DB believes will see the S&P drop 6%-10%:
Christian Mueller-Glissmann stated that high valuations have increased market fragility. If there is a new negative development, it could generate growth shocks that lead to rapid de-risking. As such, there is very little buffer left if you get large negative surprises.” – Goldman Sachs
You get the idea. Between the leverage in the market, economic growth slowing, and rising inflationary pressures, numerous issues could disrupt the high levels of market complacency.
The bullish argument is that such a correction will force the Fed’s hand. As Zerohedge aptly concluded:
“Even the smallest market hiccup will prompt a furious response at the Marriner Eccles building, because we are now well beyond the point of no return and Jerome Powell and company simply can not afford even the smallest drop in stocks without risking a full-blown market meltdown, much to the chagrin of the banks above who are predicting just that.”
In Case You Missed It
Beige Book Reveals The Fed’s Biggest Problem
The most significant risk for the market is a change in investor psychology. As long as nothing disrupts that bullish bias, investors will continue to aggressively “buy dips.” However, that psychology is directly linked to the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet expansion. Thus, the potential problem for investors is inflation.
The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of economic conditions in the 12 Federal Reserve Districts.
- Boston: “Inability to get supplies and to hire workers.”
- New York: “Businesses reporting widespread labor shortages.”
- Philadelphia: “Labor shortages and supply chain disruptions continued apace.”
- Cleveland: “Staff levels increased modestly amid intense labor shortages.”
- Richmond: “Many firms faced shortages and higher costs for labor and non-labor inputs.”
- Atlanta: “Wage pressures more widespread.”
- Chicago: “Wages and prices increased strongly”
- St. Louis: “Contacts continued to report labor and material shortages.”
- Minneapolis: “Hiring demand outstriped labor response by a wide margin.”
- Kansas City: “Wages grew at a robust pace.”
- Dallas: “Wage and price growth remained elevated amid widespread labor and supply chain shortages.”
- San Francisco: “Hiring activity intensified further, as did upward pressures on wages and inflation.”
Inflation is becoming problematic for the Fed mainly if these pressures are not as “transient” as hoped. Higher wages are corrosive to both earnings and margins. As shown below, strongly rising producer prices are initially good for profit margins until inflation can not get passed along to consumers. Such is the case currently, with the most significant historical spread between PPI and CPI.
With supply chain disruptions looking to last longer than expected, the Fed is trapped between supporting a slowing economy and fighting inflation.
It’s a battle they are likely going to lose, no matter what they choose.
As noted above, market action became sloppier this week.
Over the last few weeks, we discussed that stock selection was essential to portfolio performance as breadth continues to narrow in the market. This past week was not much different. The question is now whether the previous leaders will become laggards? Such could suggest more trouble overall for markets.
In the meantime, equity allocations remain underweight. We have increased the bond portfolio duration closer in alignment with our benchmark as we continue to look for lower rates as economic growth slows. Cash remains roughly 10% of our equity allocations as a risk hedge for now.
As noted above, there is a reasonable possibility the market stalls at current levels and works off some of the overbought conditions. There is also a more than a possible risk of a correction between 5% and 10%.
However, I don’t know which it will be until we start seeing definite signs of the market breaking down. At that point, it will be too late to make adjustments. Such is why, as we have stated previously, this is an opportune time to get in front of risk by taking some simplistic actions.
- Tighten up stop-loss levels to current support levels for each position.
- Hedge portfolios against major market declines. (Cash, Non-correlated Assets, Direct Hedges)
- Take profits in positions that have been big winners
- Sell laggards and losers
- Raise cash and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.
These actions will not protect you from a decline. They will, however, lessen the blow and allow you to rebalance risk accordingly where they become present.
Or, you can do nothing and hope for the best.
It’s your choice.
Have a great weekend.
By Lance Roberts, CIO
Market & Sector Analysis
Analysis & Stock Screens Exclusively For RIAPro Members
S&P 500 Tear Sheet
The technical overbought/sold gauge comprises several price indicators (RSI, Williams %R, etc.), measured using “weekly” closing price data. Readings above “80” are considered overbought, and below “20” are oversold. The current reading is 76.91 out of a possible 100.
Portfolio Positioning “Fear / Greed” Gauge
Our “Fear/Greed” gauge is how individual and professional investors are “positioning” themselves in the market based on their equity exposure. From a contrarian position, the higher the allocation to equities, to more likely the market is closer to a correction than not. The gauge uses weekly closing data.
NOTE: The Fear/Greed Index measures risk from 0-100. It is a rarity that it reaches levels above 90. The current reading is 80.93 out of a possible 100.
Sector Model Analysis & Risk Ranges
How To Read This Table
- The table compares each sector and market to the S&P 500 index on relative performance.
- “MA XVER” is determined by whether the short-term weekly moving average crosses positively or negatively with the long-term weekly moving average.
- The risk range is a function of the month-end closing price and the “beta” of the sector or market. (Ranges reset on the 1st of each month)
- Table shows the price deviation above and below the weekly moving averages.
Weekly Stock Screens
Currently, there are four different stock screens for you to review. The first is S&P 500 based companies with a “Growth” focus, the second is a “Value” screen on the entire universe of stocks, and the last are stocks that are “Technically” strong and breaking above their respective 50-dma.
We have provided the yield of each security and a Piotroski Score ranking to help you find fundamentally strong companies on each screen. (For more on the Piotroski Score – read this report.)
S&P 500 Growth Screen
Low P/B, High-Value Score, High Dividend Screen
Fundamental Growth Screen
Aggressive Growth Strategy
Portfolio / Client Update
I know, another boring week. But in a way, that is a good thing. When higher volatility comes, and it will, we will all be wishing for the “good ole’ days.”
In the meantime, our current model allocation remains primarily unchanged. We did increase our longer-duration bond holdings previously, which has served us well. As discussed earlier, we manage risk exposures to reduce volatility while still participating with the market’s advance. Stock selection has been key to carrying an overweight cash position and still outperforming our benchmark index.
The continuing deterioration of market internals continues to suggest a rising risk profile to the markets. Such is why we continue to remain cautious in our allocation models. That has not changed from last week.
“We still hold a slightly higher cash balance in the equity sleeve (~10%) and the fixed income sleeve (~10%). We use the cash as a risk hedge against an equity draw and “shorten duration” in the bond allocation. While we were previously increasing the duration of our bond portfolio to capture the decline in rates, we are holding cash to add longer-duration bonds on upticks in rates.
If there is a risk-off event in the market, yields will drop to 1% or less providing a nice bump in appreciation in our bond portfolio. In the meantime, we are collecting a bit of income while holding the hedge.“
For now, there seems to be minimal risk in a market that continues to creep higher. Unfortunately, however, we will not always get to enjoy such low volatility markets, so enjoy them while you can.
During the past week, we made minor changes to portfolios. In addition, we post all trades in real-time at RIAPRO.NET.
*** Trading Update – Equity and Sector Models ***
No Trades Last Week
As always, our short-term concern remains the protection of your portfolio. Accordingly, we remain focused on the differentials between underlying fundamentals and market over-valuations.
Lance Roberts, CIO
THE REAL 401k PLAN MANAGER
A Conservative Strategy For Long-Term Investors
Attention: In the next couple of weeks, the 401k plan manager will no longer appear in the newsletter. However, the link to the website will remain for your convenience. Be sure to bookmark it in your browser.
This past week was a bit rougher for markets than usual. However, while the market did violate its 20-dma, it remains well-entrenched above the 50-dma. Moreover, with the market having sold off every day last week, a rally next week will not be surprising heading into options expiration.
The one thing to watch for is a violation of the 50-dma, which will most likely indicate we are starting a bit larger correction between 5-10%. Given the Fed looks to be aggressively moving towards tapering their balance sheet purchases, we may have seen the peak in the market for now. However, the bullish bias remains very strong, so it is still too early to get overly defensive.
In the meantime, we can take some actions to reduce portfolio risk accordingly. First, continue to move all new contributions to either money market or stable value funds for now. Also, rebalance your equities and bonds back to weightings as equities are likely now out of tolerance.
International and small-cap stocks continue to underperform as of late as the momentum chase has turned back to the growth trade. Remain underweight these sectors.
There is no need to be aggressive here.
Choose The Model That FIts Your Goals
If you need help after reading the alert, do not hesitate to contact me.
Or, let us manage it for you automatically.
401k Model Performance Analysis
Model performance is a two-asset model of stocks and bonds relative to the weighting changes made each week in the newsletter. Such is strictly for informational and educational purposes only, and one should not rely on it for any reason. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Use at your own risk and peril.
Have a great week!
Lance Roberts is a Chief Portfolio Strategist/Economist for RIA Advisors. He is also the host of “The Lance Roberts Podcast” and Chief Editor of the “Real Investment Advice” website and author of “Real Investment Daily” blog and “Real Investment Report“. Follow Lance on Facebook, Twitter, Linked-In and YouTube
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