TPA monitors a number of short-term and medium-term alert measures in its TPA Marketscore, which it sends to clients on a daily basis. The percent of Russell 100 stocks trading above their 50DMA is trading at a historical extreme of 11.87%. TPA notes that this alert is remarkably accurate on the BUY side (meaning under 15%).
Looking back over the past 2 ½ years, this alert has been triggered 3 times; 5/11/2022, 6/14/2022, and
10/9/2022. Once triggered, the S&P500 (SPY) rose 4.05%, 10.24%, and 12.37% in the next 19, 64, and
53 days, respectively. Of course, no pattern is foolproof, but as patterns go, this one is pretty consistent.
TPA provides The TPA Marketscope, a table of past alerts, and the chart of the alert and the SPY since February 2021.
Jeff Marcus founded Turning Point Analytics (TPA) in 2009 after 25 years on trading desks and 13 years as a head trader to provide strategic and technical research to institutional clients. Turning Point Analytics (TPA) provides a unique strategy that works as an overlay to clients’ good fundamental analysis. After 10 years of serving only large institutions, TPA now offers its research services to mid and small managers, RIA’s, and wealthy sophisticated individuals looking for a way to increase their returns and outperform their peers.
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