Trade Alert – Equity & ETF Models
With a ceasefire in place, the market has shot up 150+ points through the 200-dma. Accordingly, we are covering our short (SH) and adding a little exposure to get back to near full weight. While the ceasefire can certainly fail, we must consider that both sides are heavily vested in working something out. Further, we are past a seasonally weak period, and April tends to be one of the better months. Lastly, earnings will start at the end of the week, and there is a likelihood of new buyback announcements given lower prices.
As long as the market can hold the 200-dma and the moving averages cross back toward positive standing, the market should be in decent shape. That said, we can reduce exposure again if proven wrong.
We are also swapping another 5% of IEI into MBB due to reduced inflation fears, assuming the ceasefire holds, which should bode well for MBB outperforming IEI.
Equity Model
- Sell 100% of SH (Inverse S&P 500)
- Buy 0.50% MSFT
- Buy 1.00% AMZN
- Buy 1.00% NVDA
- Buy 1.00% JPM
- Buy 5.00% MBB
- Sell 5.00% IEI
ETF Model
- Sell 100% of SH (Inverse S&P 500)
- Buy 2.00% XLK
- Buy 2.00% MGK
- Buy 5.00% MBB
- Sell 5.00% IEI
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Michael Lebowitz, CFA is an Investment Analyst and Portfolio Manager for RIA Advisors. specializing in macroeconomic research, valuations, asset allocation, and risk management. RIA Contributing Editor and Research Director. CFA is an Investment Analyst and Portfolio Manager; Co-founder of 720 Global Research.
Follow Michael on Twitter or go to 720global.com for more research and analysis.
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