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September is shaping up to be a critical month.
The word for the last 2 weeks should be “flux”. The leaders for 2024 were large TECH. They failed miserably in the past month. Energy and Energy-related areas had done well for the past 6 months, but are sending mixed messages. Interest-rate sensitive stocks; REITs, Regional Banks, and Home Constrution stocks had a bounce but are stalling.
Stocks are probably waiting on a number of things:
- The final direction of rates. TPA believes it will be lower, but the market has a big employment number to deal with this week. The betting is the FED will lower rates this month, but how much and what will they promise for the future.
- What will happen in the Middle East? Peace will mean much lower energy prices, but a widening war could disrupt energy supplies.
- Rates and Energy could also set the tone for, not just the economy, but the outcome of the Presdiential election in November – which will have vast repercussions for various industries.
All-in-all, September is shaping up to be a critical month.
Jeff Marcus founded Turning Point Analytics (TPA) in 2009 after 25 years on trading desks and 13 years as a head trader to provide strategic and technical research to institutional clients. Turning Point Analytics (TPA) provides a unique strategy that works as an overlay to clients’ good fundamental analysis. After 10 years of serving only large institutions, TPA now offers its research services to mid and small managers, RIA’s, and wealthy sophisticated individuals looking for a way to increase their returns and outperform their peers.
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