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Bonds Under Pressure Or Stocks Overvalued?

Bonds Under Pressure Or Stocks Overvalued?

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 12, 2026 | Daily Market Commentary
We recently read someone’s take that the graph below decisively points to the “bond market being under serious pressure.” The graph, courtesy of Bloomberg, shows that t...
Hammack: More Pragmatist Then Hawk

Hammack: More Pragmatist Then Hawk

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 11, 2026 | Daily Market Commentary
At the April 29th FOMC meeting, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and two others (Logan and Kashkari) dissented. Unlike most dissents historically, the objection wasn’t about whe...
Hammack: More Pragmatist Then Hawk

Hammack: More Pragmatist Then Hawk

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 11, 2026 | Daily Market Commentary
At the April 29th FOMC meeting, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and two others (Logan and Kashkari) dissented. Unlike most dissents historically, the objection wasn’t about whe...
Temporary Jobs: A Good Leading Indicator Gone Bad?

Temporary Jobs: A Good Leading Indicator Gone Bad?

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 8, 2026 | Daily Market Commentary
When businesses have concerns about the economy, they often lay off or stop hiring temporary workers before firing full-time employees. For that reason, temporary staffing employment...
Oil Rig Counts Don’t Tell The Whole Story

Oil Rig Counts Don’t Tell The Whole Story

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 7, 2026 | Daily Market Commentary
The graph below shows that the US oil rig count has been slightly declining despite much higher oil prices. While many investors may assume that no growth in the number of operating o...
Nicoletos: AI Makes A Case For Active Strategies

Nicoletos: AI Makes A Case For Active Strategies

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 6, 2026 | Daily Market Commentary
Michael Nicoletos wrote a thoughtful paper titled “
Does The Treasury Hold The Next Market Tailwind?

Does The Treasury Hold The Next Market Tailwind?

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 5, 2026 | Daily Market Commentary
The Treasury General Account (TGA) is effectively the US Treasury’s checking account held at the Fed. The changing balance of the TGA affects the financial system’s liquidity, the...
NVDA To CPU Rotation: Durable Thesis Or Crowded Trade?

NVDA To CPU Rotation: Durable Thesis Or Crowded Trade?

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 4, 2026 | Daily Market Commentary
The semiconductor leaderboard has quietly flipped over the past month, and the NVDA to CPU rotation is worth pausing on. NVDA, the name that defined the AI trade for two-plus years, i...
AI Spending Receipts: Four Tech Giants, Four Different Verdicts

AI Spending Receipts: Four Tech Giants, Four Different Verdicts

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 1, 2026 | Daily Market Commentary
Wednesday’s mega-cap tech earnings produced one of the cleaner real-time experiments we’ve seen this cycle. Four hyperscalers reported. All four beat on revenue and earnings. All...
Powells Coda: Dissension In The Ranks

Powells Coda: Dissension In The Ranks

By Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 30, 2026 | Daily Market Commentary
Presuming Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair is approved by the Senate, as is widely expected, yesterday's FOMC meeting was Jerome Powell's last as its Chair. However,...