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Daily Update
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, asks- “What time is it in the cycle? Now that we are 17 months into a bull market cycle, it’s worth asking how much life there...
State Street Has A Unique View On Fed Cuts
There’s a lot to suggest that this is still a very fragile recovery despite the fact it continues to look resilient on the surface. -State Str...
Amazon Stock Hides Weakness In Discretionary Stocks
Amazon stock accounts for 25% of the Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY), and it has been up 23% year to date. However, as represented by XLY, the sector is barely eking out a 1% gain for...
The Jobs Market Remains Hot
The average Wall Street forecast for job growth was 200k, with the highest individual at 290k. Per Friday’s BLS employment report, the number of new jobs is 303k, beating every estimate....
The Service Sector Weakens As Manufacturing Strengthens
This past week’s ISM service and manufacturing surveys continue to show divergence between the two major economic sectors. However, this divergence differs from what we have seen over th...
Is A Market Rotation At Hand
Markets often experience periods, like today, where specific sectors or factors lead the market. Identifying such trends is essential to attain market-like returns. Equally important is ac...
Credit Stress Is Brewing As Market Complacency Rises
Typically, credit spreads and yields on junk bonds align with credit stress and anticipated stress in the credit markets. Today, however, an aura of complacency reigns over the junk bond m...
Powell Indicates Balance Between Inflation and Employment
For the better part of the last two years, Jerome Powell and the Fed have clearly indicated that monetary policy is primarily focused on bringing inflation back to its 2% target. Over the...
Christopher Waller The Fed’s Biggest Hawk Is Turning Dovish
In a speech last Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller showed how even the most hawkish Fed members are turning dovish. The transformation from a hawkish to a dovish Fed began last Oct...
Small Cap Returns Point To Interest Rate Worries
As shown on the left, from 1979 until 2000, the correlation between small cap returns (Russell 2000) and the U.S. Treasury ten-year yield was often highly negatively correlated. As circled...
