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Daily Update
Treasury yields rose sharply following the Fed meeting on Wednesday, yet they are collapsing in the world’s second-largest economy, China. While our economy is robust, large foreign...
Cut And Pause: FOMC Summary
As widely expected, the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bps, to 4.25-4.50%, at yesterday’s FOMC meeting. Moreover, they intimated that after cutting rates by 1% since September, the...
More Revisions Coming To Employment Data
In August, the BLS revised 2024 employment growth lower by 818k jobs in its preliminary revision of its Current Employment Statistics (CES). Despite the substantial revision, more red...
The Dollar And Domestic – International Relative Stock Returns
The U.S. dollar index is up over 6% this year, almost all attributable to a post-election surge. As many developed nations show stagnant economic growth or even contraction, the U.S....
Britain And European Economic Growth Sputters
Yesterday’s Commentary touched o...
Is Canada A Canary In The Economic Coalmine?
On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada cut its key benchmark rate by 50bps. They have now cut by 150 bps in 2024, compared to what will likely be 100 bps for the Fed after next week’s mee...
CPI Was On The Screws: The Fed Has The Green Light
Yesterday's CPI report was seemingly the last hurdle for the Fed to cut interest rates. With the CPI index matching Wall Street forecasts, the Fed Funds futures market now...
China Is No Longer The Marginal Buyer Of Oil
From 2010 through 2022, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) calculates that global oil demand grew by 10 million barrels per day (Mb/d). Over 60% of the demand growth was d...
What Are Material Stocks Telling Us?
Material stocks have been one of the worst-performing sectors this year, lagging the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. Since the election, its relative performance versus the market has cont...
Housing Affordability Brings Market To A Standstill
Housing affordability helps explain why residential real estate transactions have reached a standstill. Over the last five years, housing prices have surged. Per the Case-Shiller 20 C...
