QT Today: QE Tomorrow

Prices Decline Raising The Odds Of A Rate Cut

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 12, 2024

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% last month, following 0.0% the prior month and…

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QT Today: QE Tomorrow

QT Today: QE Tomorrow

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 11, 2024

The Fed’s balance sheet peaked at $9 billion in April 2022. Today, after two years…

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The Market Is Very Extended But It Can Stay That Way

Chair Powell Testifies To Congress

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 10, 2024

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to Congress yesterday and updated them with the Fed’s latest…

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The Market Is Very Extended But It Can Stay That Way

The Market Is Very Extended But It Can Stay That Way

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 9, 2024

A reader asked us how concerned we are about the market’s extension from crucial moving…

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The Fed Funds Rate Is Too High

July 31 Is Back On The Markets Calendar With Fridays Jobs Report

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 8, 2024

A year ago, the Fed Funds futures market thought the Fed would have cut rates…

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The Fed Funds Rate Is Too High

R Star: A Culprit Behind Higher Interest Rates

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 5, 2024

As we shared on Monday, The Fed Funds Rate Is Too High. The biggest reason…

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The Fed Funds Rate Is Too High

The Economy Is Normalizing – Whats Next?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 3, 2024

Tuesday’s JOLTs report is one of many data points showing that the labor market is…

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The Fed Funds Rate Is Too High

The Fed Funds Rate Is Too High

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 2, 2024

Let’s step back and ignore the last four years in which the economy cratered with…

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Will Japan Dump U.S. Treasury Securities?

Supercore PCE Is The Weakest Since August

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 1, 2024

Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues breathed a sigh of relief Friday morning as the…

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Will Japan Dump U.S. Treasury Securities?

Cognitive Dissonance Is On Full Display

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 28, 2024

The recent Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey data show a state of cognitive dissonance among…

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Will Japan Dump U.S. Treasury Securities?

Will Japan Dump U.S. Treasury Securities?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 27, 2024

Japan holds $1.150 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities, well above the next major foreign holder,…

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The Economist Makes A Case For Solar Energy

The Economist Makes A Case For Solar Energy

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 26, 2024

The unique graph below caught our attention, compelling us to read Solar Power Is Going…

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Buybacks Are Back - RIA

Buybacks Are Back – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 25, 2024

Over the last six-plus months, we have written plenty on how a few stocks lead…

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Communication Data Implies Remote Work is Here to Stay

Consumers Are Turning to Private Label Brands

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 24, 2024

Consumers are turning away from name-brand foods in an attempt to cut back on spending….

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Communication Data Implies Remote Work is Here to Stay

Communication Data Implies Remote Work is Here to Stay

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 21, 2024

The chart below, courtesy of @KobeissiLetter on X, depicts downtown cell communication data for several…

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Michigan Survey Shows Consumer Concerns

Global Diversification Might Not Be Dead

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 20, 2024

The chart below suggests that global diversification could be dead. The S&P 500 notched a…

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Michigan Survey Shows Consumer Concerns

Mega Cap Valuations are Dwarfed by Tesla

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 18, 2024

Tesla investors are betting on the EV maker’s path to tech-caliber profitability. However, the manifestation…

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Michigan Survey Shows Consumer Concerns

Michigan Survey Shows Consumer Concerns

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 17, 2024

Over the past few months, we have witnessed a decided deterioration in consumer spending. For…

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The CPI Report Supports Rate Cuts Later This Year

Sentimentrader Highlights Bad Market Breadth

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 14, 2024

Bad market breadth seems to be a hallmark of the rally off of the 2022…

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The CPI Report Supports Rate Cuts Later This Year

The CPI Report Supports Rate Cuts Later This Year

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 13, 2024

The Fed got good news yesterday, with the headline CPI coming in at 0% for…

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Energy Prices Drive The Fed Despite What They Say

Energy Prices Drive The Fed Despite What They Say

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 12, 2024

The Fed often stresses that it prefers core inflation measures, which exclude food and energy…

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A Great Jobs Report With Ugly Underpinings

Degen Traders Are Taking Storm Of The Markets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 11, 2024

Degen traders, short for degenerates, are taking storm of the markets. The Wall Street Journal…

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A Great Jobs Report With Ugly Underpinings

A Great Jobs Report With Ugly Underpinings

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 10, 2024

The BLS jobs report showed the economy added 272k jobs, well above expectations of 175k,…

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Zero Down Mortgages Are Back

The Texas Stock Exchange – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 7, 2024

Yes, you read that right: Texas will host a stock exchange. BlackRock and Citadel are…

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Zero Down Mortgages Are Back

Zero Down Mortgages Are Back

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 6, 2024

Here we go again. At the peak of the mortgage bubble, leading to the Great…

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Why is Crude Oil Tumbling?

Why is Crude Oil Tumbling?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 5, 2024

Crude oil prices have fallen by 10% over the last five days and nearly 20%…

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Roaring Kitty Goes All In On GameStop

Roaring Kitty Goes All In On GameStop

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 4, 2024

GameStop shares traded nearly 100% higher in pre-market trading before Monday’s official 9:30 ET opening….

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ETF Fund Flows Confirm What We Knew

Orange Juice Is The Next Cocoa

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 3, 2024

In mid-March, we presented daily Commentary readers with a section entitled, Add Cocoa To The…

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ETF Fund Flows Confirm What We Knew

Lets Knock On Wood – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 31, 2024

We haven’t written lately on Cathie Wood and her ARKK Innovation ETF. But given the…

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ETF Fund Flows Confirm What We Knew

ETF Fund Flows Confirm What We Knew

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 30, 2024

The graph on the left below, courtesy of Arbor Data Science, shows that $8 billion…

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Might GE Vernova Be The Next Nvidia?

Might GE Vernova Be The Next Nvidia?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 29, 2024

Nvidia shares have risen by 600% in the last two years. While some say its…

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Nvidia By The Numbers - RIA

Food Also Points To Slowing Personal Consumption

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 27, 2024

Thursday’s Commentary led with a discussion of how sales at major retailers were slowing appreciably….

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Nvidia By The Numbers - RIA

Nvidia By The Numbers – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 24, 2024

With the stock price of Nvidia (NVDA) now trading at over $1,000 per share, Nvidia…

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Targets Sales Woes Are The Norm In The Retail Sector

Targets Sales Woes Are The Norm In The Retail Sector

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 23, 2024

One repeated theme in the current round of earnings is that personal consumption is slowing…

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Market Divergence Prompts An Important Question

Market Divergence Prompts An Important Question

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 22, 2024

“Recently, we have had confusing divergences in the major stock market indexes,” starts a reader’s…

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Electricity Demand is Surging on the Back of Data Centers

Nvidia Earnings: What To Expect

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 21, 2024

This Wednesday’s Nvidia (NVDA) quarterly earnings announcement will be the most watched earnings report of…

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Electricity Demand is Surging on the Back of Data Centers

Summer Driving Season is Late This Year- Signal or Noise?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 20, 2024

Summer driving season, lasting from Memorial Day to Labor Day is fast approaching. Typically, during…

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Electricity Demand is Surging on the Back of Data Centers

Electricity Demand is Surging on the Back of Data Centers

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 17, 2024

The graph below shows that the price of electricity is surging. It has risen by…

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Retail Sales And CPI Return Hope For A September Cut

Retail Sales And CPI Return Hope For A September Cut

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 16, 2024

Wednesday’s retail sales and CPI data were weak enough to get investors back on the…

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The GME and AMC Short Squeeze Is On Again

The GME and AMC Short Squeeze Is On Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 15, 2024

On Monday, the popular meme stocks Game Stop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) surged higher…

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The VVIX and VIX Highlight Complacency

The VVIX and VIX Highlight Complacency

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 14, 2024

After a brief spurt of volatility accompanying the 6% market decline in April, implied volatility…

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Small Cap Profit Margins Confirm NFIB Findings

Small Cap Profit Margins Confirm NFIB Findings

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 13, 2024

A few weeks ago, we wrote Economic Warning From The NFIB to share information from…

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Stock Buybacks Are Growing Again

Stock Buybacks Are Growing Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 10, 2024

Apple’s stock surged 7% after reporting flat earnings and revenue growth. Investors didn’t seem to…

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Economic Headwinds Are Starting To Gust

Economic Headwinds Are Starting To Gust

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 9, 2024

With just a few graphs, we can visualize how economic headwinds are about to get…

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Could ACDC Bring Needed Growth To Apple?

Could ACDC Bring Needed Growth To Apple?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 8, 2024

In June, Apple is expected to announce its progress on AI development, including Project ACDC,…

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Excess Savings Wanes Likely Eliminating Excess Growth

Excess Savings Wanes Likely Eliminating Excess Growth

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 7, 2024

Personal consumption accounts for two-thirds of economic activity. Therefore, the means by which consumers can…

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Rate Cuts Do Not Appear To Be On The Horizon

A Stock And Bond Friendly Labor Report

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 6, 2024

Last week’s Employment Cost Index (ECI) shook the stock and bond markets as investors worried…

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Rate Cuts Do Not Appear To Be On The Horizon

Starbucks Earnings Warn Of Belt Tightening

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 3, 2024

Starbucks latest earnings report sends the message that consumers may finally be retrenching after a…

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Rate Cuts Do Not Appear To Be On The Horizon

Rate Cuts Do Not Appear To Be On The Horizon

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 2, 2024

As was widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged. Jerome Powell alluded that it’s…

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Weight Loss Drugs Power Eli Lilly Earnings

Weight Loss Drugs Power Eli Lilly Earnings

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 1, 2024

Eli Lilly (LLY) shares have risen significantly as the company is proving to be a…

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Treasury Cash Soars Providing A Liquidity Reprieve

The Yen Has A Wild Night

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 30, 2024

Year to date, the yen has fallen by 10% versus the U.S. dollar. Consequently, the…

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Treasury Cash Soars Providing A Liquidity Reprieve

The US Represents Over 25% Of The Global Economy

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 29, 2024

Yesterday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that real GDP grew by 1.6%, putting…

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Treasury Cash Soars Providing A Liquidity Reprieve

Meta And Tesla Show Technicals Trump Narratives

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 26, 2024

Meta shares fell almost 20% following a better-than-expected earnings report. The day before, Tesla shares…

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Treasury Cash Soars Providing A Liquidity Reprieve

Treasury Cash Soars Providing A Liquidity Reprieve

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 25, 2024

The U.S. Treasury now has $930 billion in cash in its Treasury General Account (TGA)…

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Bank Rule Changes To Help Fund The Deficit

Bank Rule Changes To Help Fund The Deficit

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 24, 2024

The Wall Street Journal posted an article on bank rule changes entitled A Century-Old Lending…

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The Magnificent Seven Are Struggling- What Might It Mean?

The Magnificent Seven Are Struggling- What Might It Mean?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 23, 2024

Over the last few weeks, the market tone has changed. The S&P 500 is no…

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Election Year Market Expectations - RIA

Election Year Market Expectations – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 22, 2024

Investors tend to prefer periods of stability. However, as we share below, politicians’ promises appear…

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Inflation Is Heading Lower Despite The Reflation Narrative

Inflation Is Heading Lower Despite The Reflation Narrative

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 19, 2024

The narrative de jour scaring bond investors is reflation. The recent stickiness and even uptick…

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Gold Miners And Gold Are Not The Same

Gold Miners And Gold Are Not The Same

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 18, 2024

Yesterday’s Commentary discussed the coming halving of Bitcoin and its pros and cons for Bitcoin…

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Bitcoin Is Halving On Saturday

Bitcoin Is Halving On Saturday

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 17, 2024

On Saturday, April 20, Bitcoin will be halving. Halving is an essential part of what…

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Tesla Cuts 15k Jobs As EVs Fall Out Of Favor

Tesla Cuts 15k Jobs As EVs Fall Out Of Favor

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 16, 2024

In our article Is Toyota The Next Tesla, we discuss recent trends in the automobile…

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Bank Earnings Paint A Mixed Economic Picture

Bank Earnings Paint A Mixed Economic Picture

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 15, 2024

From a macroeconomic perspective, Friday’s bank earnings reports provide two important pieces of information. As…

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Bumpy Or Stuck Inflation Will Determine The Feds Path

Bumpy Or Stuck Inflation Will Determine The Feds Path

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 12, 2024

With the latest round of inflation data in hand, it appears the Fed has two…

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How Much Time Is Left In This Bull Market Cycle?

How Much Time Is Left In This Bull Market Cycle?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 11, 2024

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, asks- “What time is it in the…

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State Street Has A Unique View On Fed Cuts

State Street Has A Unique View On Fed Cuts

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 10, 2024

There’s a lot to suggest that this is still a very fragile recovery despite the…

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Amazon Stock Hides Weakness In Discretionary Stocks

Amazon Stock Hides Weakness In Discretionary Stocks

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 9, 2024

Amazon stock accounts for 25% of the Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY), and it has been…

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The Jobs Market Remains Hot

The Jobs Market Remains Hot

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 8, 2024

The average Wall Street forecast for job growth was 200k, with the highest individual at…

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The Service Sector Weakens As Manufacturing Strengthens

The Service Sector Weakens As Manufacturing Strengthens

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 5, 2024

This past week’s ISM service and manufacturing surveys continue to show divergence between the two…

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Is A Market Rotation At Hand

Is A Market Rotation At Hand

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 4, 2024

Markets often experience periods, like today, where specific sectors or factors lead the market. Identifying…

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Credit Stress Is Brewing As Market Complacency Rises

Credit Stress Is Brewing As Market Complacency Rises

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 3, 2024

Typically, credit spreads and yields on junk bonds align with credit stress and anticipated stress…

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Powell Indicates Balance Between Inflation and Employment

Powell Indicates Balance Between Inflation and Employment

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 2, 2024

For the better part of the last two years, Jerome Powell and the Fed have…

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Christopher Waller The Fed's Biggest Hawk Is Turning Dovish

Christopher Waller The Fed’s Biggest Hawk Is Turning Dovish

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 29, 2024

In a speech last Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller showed how even the most hawkish…

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Small Cap Returns Point To Interest Rate Worries

Small Cap Returns Point To Interest Rate Worries

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 28, 2024

As shown on the left, from 1979 until 2000, the correlation between small cap returns…

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Tesla And EVs Fall Out Of Favor

Tesla And EVs Fall Out Of Favor

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 27, 2024

Yesterday’s Commentary discussed the fall of EV maker Fisker. After posting the article, Fisker shares…

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Apartment Supply Will Surge This Year

Apartment Supply Will Surge This Year

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 26, 2024

Over the last few weeks, we have shared information about the troubles facing the commercial…

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CRE Pain is Just Getting Started

CRE Pain is Just Getting Started

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 25, 2024

The vacancy rate of commercial real estate is higher today than at any point in…

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QE Light May Allow the Fed to Help the Treasury

QE Light May Allow the Fed to Help the Treasury

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 22, 2024

With inflation remaining sticky well above the Fed’s 2% target and the economy showing few…

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Fed Dot Plot Projections Point To Stronger Growth And Rate Cuts

Fed Dot Plot Projections Point To Stronger Growth And Rate Cuts

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 21, 2024

The last release of the Fed’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, aka dot plots, was…

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The BOJ Ends Historic Run Of Negative Rates

The BOJ Ends Historic Run Of Negative Rates

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 20, 2024

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has finally ended its eight-year run of negative interest rates….

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Quartz The Underappreciated Economic Lynchpin

Quartz The Underappreciated Economic Lynchpin

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 19, 2024

In Spruce Pine, North Carolina, one small area supplies the world with high-purity quartz. Spruce…

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CRE Loans Threaten Regional Banks

CRE Loans Threaten Regional Banks

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 18, 2024

The following commentary is from The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER claims…

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MicroStrategy Investors Are Buying Bitcoin At A Massive Premium

MicroStrategy Investors Are Buying Bitcoin At A Massive Premium

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 15, 2024

Microstrategy (MSTR) provides its customers with business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. Despite losing…

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Sticky Inflation And Fed Policy In Context

Sticky Inflation And Fed Policy In Context

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 14, 2024

Over the last few months, the downward inflation trend has slowed appreciably. Such leads some…

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Blackrock Works For Blackrock Not You

Blackrock Works For Blackrock Not You

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 13, 2024

Wall Street banks, brokers, and asset managers put out market research, which can be of…

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Miners Fail To Keep Up With Gold And Bitcoin Rally

Miners Fail To Keep Up With Gold And Bitcoin Rally

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 12, 2024

Gold and Bitcoin have been among some of the best-performing assets recently, yet despite their…

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Household Versus Headline- Which Employment Report Is Right?

Household Versus Headline- Which Employment Report Is Right?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 11, 2024

Friday’s employment data from the BLS was a mixed bag. The closely followed nonfarm payrolls…

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Why Are Financial Conditions Easing?

Why Are Financial Conditions Easing?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 8, 2024

The Fed is doing QT and keeping interest rates at 15+ year highs. Mortgage rates…

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Bitcoin Declined 13% Intraday Again

Bitcoin Declined 13% Intraday Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 7, 2024

From Monday’s close to its low point on Tuesday, Bitcoin declined by over 13%. While…

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Paul Volcker Warns The Fed

Paul Volcker Warns The Fed

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 6, 2024

Paul Volcker, Fed Chairman from 1979 to 1987, passed away in 2019. However, poignant words…

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Nvidia Is Aiming For Apple and Microsoft

Nvidia Is Aiming For Apple and Microsoft

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 5, 2024

“Mooning“- When the value of an asset skyrockets, exceeding investors’ expectations. The phrase mooning, often…

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Junk Bonds And Bitcoin Scream Wild Exuberance

Junk Bonds And Bitcoin Scream Wild Exuberance

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 4, 2024

It’s not just a handful of AI-related stocks that signal a speculative investment atmosphere. Many…

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Stock Buybacks Provide A Tailwind For Large Stocks

Stock Buybacks Provide A Tailwind For Large Stocks

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 1, 2024

Stock buyback authorization announcements are soaring this year. As shown in the graph on the…

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Stocks And VIX Flash A Warning

Stocks And VIX Flash A Warning

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 29, 2024

The implied volatility index (VIX) calculates the future volatility that option traders expect. The VIX…

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Shale Oil- Should Investors Fear The Red Queen Effect?

Shale Oil- Should Investors Fear The Red Queen Effect?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 28, 2024

In a recent article, geologist Ted Cross of Novilabs eases investor concerns about the rapid…

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The Conference Board Says Smooth Sailing Ahead, But....

The Conference Board Says Smooth Sailing Ahead, But….

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 27, 2024

As we noted in our current Weekly Newsletter, Conference Board Scraps Its Recession Call, the…

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CEOs Are Exiting - Should You Follow The Smart Money?

CEOs Are Exiting – Should You Follow The Smart Money?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 26, 2024

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon sold $150 million of his JPM shares, marking the first…

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The Nikkei Finally Tops 34 Year Old Peak

The Nikkei Finally Tops 34 Year Old Peak

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 23, 2024

Japan is in a recession, its population is shrinking, and its debt to GDP is…

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The Magnificent Two Leaves Five Stocks In Their Dust

The Magnificent Two Leaves Five Stocks In Their Dust

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 22, 2024

The Magnificent Seven hog the headlines and are the envy of many investors. Yet since…

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Corporations Are Hoarding Cash - RIA

Corporations Are Hoarding Cash – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 21, 2024

The Bloomberg graph below provides us with a reason to be optimistic about the earnings…

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Can Midcap Stocks Ignore Bond Yields?

Can Midcap Stocks Ignore Bond Yields?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 20, 2024

The graphs below show the daily and weekly graphs of MDY, the midcap ETF, alongside…

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America Is Avoiding A Global Recession, So Far

America Is Avoiding A Global Recession, So Far

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 16, 2024

On Thursday morning, Japan and the United Kingdom reported a negative GDP for the second…

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Lyft Blunder Causes Chaos - RIA

Lyft Blunder Causes Chaos – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 15, 2024

Lyft’s earnings announcement Tuesday night was one for the ages. Their quarterly earnings statement reported…

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Small Businesses Are Struggling Despite The Economy

Small Businesses Are Struggling Despite The Economy

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 14, 2024

Per the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 43.5% of GDP comes from small businesses. The Small…

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Trueflation Or CPI Inflation? - RIA

Trueflation Or CPI Inflation? – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 13, 2024

On January 23, we led the Daily Commentary with a couple of paragraphs titled Is…

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A Major Obstacle to the Energy Transition

A Major Obstacle to the Energy Transition

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 12, 2024

The supply side of the energy transition is well on its way, but the demand…

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Tesla Is On Sale- Is It Time To Buy?

Tesla Is On Sale- Is It Time To Buy?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 9, 2024

The Magnificent Seven continue to lead the market higher as they did last year. However,…

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NYCB Is Downgraded And Contagion Fears Increase

NYCB Is Downgraded And Contagion Fears Increase

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 8, 2024

Late Tuesday night, Moody’s downgraded NYCB’s credit rating to BB, putting it in junk bond…

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China Stocks In Freefall, Government To The Rescue

China Stocks In Freefall, Government To The Rescue

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 7, 2024

In early 2021, China’s CSI 300 Index, representing the top 300 stocks traded on the…

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CRE Contagion - Which Banks Are At Risk?

CRE Contagion – Which Banks Are At Risk?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 6, 2024

The price of New York Community Bank (NYCB) was cut in half last week as…

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The Taylor Swift Gold Rush

The Labor Market Is On Fire

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 5, 2024

The BLS stunned investors Friday morning, reporting that the labor market was hotter than expected….

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The Taylor Swift Gold Rush

The Banking Crisis May Not Be Over

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 2, 2024

Interestingly, the Fed removed the following statement from Wednesday’d FOMC statement: “The U.S. banking system…

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The Taylor Swift Gold Rush

The Taylor Swift Gold Rush

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 1, 2024

“Call it a gold rush” started a Washington Post article, The Economy (Taylor’s Version), detailing…

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The Treasury Has Plenty Of Flexibility, Despite The Warnings

The Treasury Has Plenty Of Flexibility, Despite The Warnings

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 31, 2024

Bond bears have warned that the Treasury will overwhelm the market with debt, pushing yields…

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The ASA Staffing Index - RIA

The ASA Staffing Index – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 30, 2024

We believe that the clearest sign of a coming recession is weakness in the labor…

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As Goes Rent Goes Inflation

As Goes Rent Goes Inflation

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 29, 2024

On a few occasions, we have shared data on the differences between real-time rent inflation…

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Is Another Price Wage Spiral Like The 1970s Likely?

Is Another Price Wage Spiral Like The 1970s Likely?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 26, 2024

We recently published Part Two of a series comparing inflation in the 1970s to today….

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Profit Margins Are Normalizing - RIA

Profit Margins Are Normalizing – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 25, 2024

Since peaking in the first quarter of 2022, the net profit margin on the S&P…

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Unemployment Claims May Not Be As Low As You Think

Unemployment Claims May Not Be As Low As You Think

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 24, 2024

Last week’s initial unemployment claims were 187,000. Since 1967, there have only been 21 weekly…

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Is Trueflation A Better Gauge Of Inflation?

Is Trueflation A Better Gauge Of Inflation?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 23, 2024

We have frequently lamented the CPI index as its underlying prices tend to lag real-time…

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Bitcoin ETF - Buy The Rumor, Sell The Fact

Bitcoin ETF – Buy The Rumor, Sell The Fact

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 22, 2024

The price of Bitcoin rose over 10% in the first two weeks of 2024, peaking…

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Supply Shortages Drove Inflation, Some Say

Supply Shortages Drove Inflation, Some Say

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 19, 2024

Various politicians and a Fed member have recently claimed that the recent bout of high…

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Credit Outlook Doesn't Jibe With Junk Spreads

Credit Outlook Doesn’t Jibe With Junk Spreads

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 18, 2024

We have noted numerous times that corporate bond spreads, the yield premium versus U.S. Treasuries,…

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Is QT In Its Final Act?

Is QT In Its Final Act?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 17, 2024

“Fed Tiptoes Toward Dialing Back Key Channel of Monetary Tightening,” by Nick Timiraos, appeared in…

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Bitcoin ETFs Come With Stern SEC Warnings

Bitcoin ETFs Come With Stern SEC Warnings

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 16, 2024

The SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday. Unlike the supportive messaging on most…

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Bank Rescue Package Becomes A Profit Center

Bank Rescue Package Becomes A Profit Center

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 12, 2024

The Fed came to the banking sector’s rescue in March 2023 with the Bank Term…

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The Wealthy Benefit From The Fed

The Wealthy Benefit From The Fed

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 11, 2024

Axios recently put out an article with the graph below. As shown, the wealthy, defined…

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Fed Funds Expectations Are Misaligned With Market Expectations

Fed Funds Expectations Are Misaligned With Market Expectations

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 10, 2024

There is a gap between the logic of the stock and bond markets. Most stock…

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Buy Now Pay Later - RIA

Buy Now Pay Later – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 9, 2024

Since 2022, credit card debt has grown 10% annually to a record high of $1.08…

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The Corporate Bond Market Is Stirring But Not Worrisome

The Corporate Bond Market Is Stirring But Not Worrisome

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 8, 2024

“U.S. (corporate) high-yield bonds have sold off at the fastest pace since March, when traders…

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Government Spending Drives The Economy

Government Spending Drives The Economy

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 5, 2024

Since January 2022, nominal GDP has grown by $2.5 trillion or 5.77% annually. Such a…

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Tax Gain Selling And Undressing Take Charge

Tax Gain Selling And Undressing Take Charge

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 4, 2024

Quite often, year-end trading is not a function of recent economic trends, earnings projections, or…

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The Presidential Election Provides Stocks A Tailwind For 2024

The Presidential Election Provides Stocks A Tailwind For 2024

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 3, 2024

Our first article of the year, January Stats & New Year Investing Resolutions for 2024,…

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What May Lie Ahead in 2024?

What May Lie Ahead in 2024?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 2, 2024

Happy New Year! To get an idea of what may lie ahead in 2024, we…

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The Calm Before the Storm

The Calm Before the Storm

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 29, 2023

It’s the last trading day of 2023, and not much is happening around the market….

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A Case for Adjusting NVDA's Earnings

A Case for Adjusting NVDA’s Earnings

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 28, 2023

Human capital is an important input for growth at non-manufacturing tech companies such as NVDA….

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Last Call for Window Dressers

Last Call for Window Dressers

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 27, 2023

Some institutional investors must only report their holdings by the end of a month or…

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Banks And Credit Investors Have Vastly Different Opinions

Banks And Credit Investors Have Vastly Different Opinions

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 26, 2023

Corporations predominately borrow from banks and credit investors via the corporate debt markets. Most often,…

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Will The Red Sea Blockade Reignite Inflation Fears?

Will The Red Sea Blockade Reignite Inflation Fears?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 22, 2023

Houthi rebels are attacking Red Sea vessels and greatly limiting traffic in one of the…

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Optimism Is Extreme: What Might It Portend?

Optimism Is Extreme: What Might It Portend?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 21, 2023

In Tuesday’s Commentary, we shared four indicators of market breadth. While they all show robust…

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SPY Sees A Massive Inflow Of Funds

SPY Sees A Massive Inflow Of Funds

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 20, 2023

Per a Bloomberg article entitled World’s Biggest ETF See Record $21 Billion Flow on Stock…

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Record Highs In Sight As Breadth Improves

Record Highs In Sight As Breadth Improves

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 19, 2023

The S&P 500 is only 2% below record highs set two years ago. It appears…

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The VIX Index Warns Of Complacency

The VIX Index Warns Of Complacency

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 18, 2023

The VIX index, measuring the implied volatility of the S&P 500, is now at its…

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Santa Powell Lights Up The Markets

Santa Powell Lights Up The Markets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 15, 2023

Following Wednesday’s Fed meeting, ZeroHedge aptly titled an article, “Santa Powell Unleashes Global ‘Buy Everything”…

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The Pause Lengthens As The Fed Walks A Tightrope

The Pause Lengthens As The Fed Walks A Tightrope

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 14, 2023

The Fed’s pause since the last rate increase is five months old. To help appreciate…

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The Nasdaq Rebalances To The Chigrin Of The Magnificent 7

The Nasdaq Rebalances To The Chigrin Of The Magnificent 7

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 13, 2023

The Nasdaq rebalanced its holdings as expected yesterday. However, investors were not expecting the NASDAQ…

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US Oil Production Hits Records

US Oil Production Hits Records

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 12, 2023

The US now accounts for the most oil production in the world. Importantly, as we…

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RRP Program Dwindles As Excess Liquidity Fades

RRP Program Dwindles As Excess Liquidity Fades

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 11, 2023

The Fed offers banks and money market funds reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) to drain excess…

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Bitcoin Is 'A Hyped Up Fraud' Says Jamie Dimon

Bitcoin Is ‘A Hyped Up Fraud’ Says Jamie Dimon

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 8, 2023

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon testified to Congress on Wednesday in a routine meeting about…

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The ADP Jobs Report Shows Below Trend Growth

The ADP Jobs Report Shows Below Trend Growth

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 7, 2023

The ADP jobs report came in at 103k versus the expected 130k. The ADP also…

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The ADP Jobs Report Shows Below Trend Growth

The ADP Jobs Report Shows Below Trend Growth

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 7, 2023

The ADP jobs report came in at 103k versus the expected 130k. The ADP also…

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To Rent Or Buy A Home? The Tide Has Turned

To Rent Or Buy A Home? The Tide Has Turned

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 6, 2023

The Economist published an article entitled Is It Cheaper To Rent Or Buy Property? It…

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Year End Trading Patterns Take Hold

Year End Trading Patterns Take Hold

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 5, 2023

Per the Tweet of the Day, our SimpleVisor relative analysis tool suddenly shows the real…

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Where Are 10 Year Yields Going?

Where Are 10 Year Yields Going?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 4, 2023

10-year U.S. Treasury note yields have fallen by nearly 0.75% since late October. Fundamentally supporting…

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Clean Energy Dirties Portfolios - RIA

Clean Energy Dirties Portfolios – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 1, 2023

When President Biden took office, investors assumed clean energy would be a top priority. Therefore,…

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Charlie Munger Passes But His Wisdom Lives On

Charlie Munger Passes But His Wisdom Lives On

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 30, 2023

Warren Buffett’s partner, Charlie Munger, passed away on Tuesday at the ripe age of 99….

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NAHB New Home Sales Falter

NAHB New Home Sales Falter

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 29, 2023

The existing home sales market has been at a standstill. Buyers are turning away due…

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FedEx and UPS Lose Ground, Amazon Takes The Delivery Crown

FedEx and UPS Lose Ground, Amazon Takes The Delivery Crown

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 28, 2023

With the holiday season in full swing, look out your window. You will see FedEx…

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Is The Lithium Crash A Buying Opportunity?

Is The Lithium Crash A Buying Opportunity?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 27, 2023

From 2021 through 2022, the price of lithium carbonate, a key component of EV batteries,…

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IBM Ends 401K Contributions. Might Other Companies Follow?

IBM Ends 401K Contributions. Might Other Companies Follow?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 23, 2023

Might the future of retirement saving plans for corporate employees be changing? Starting next year,…

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Will Easier Financial Conditions Change Fed Messaging?

Will Easier Financial Conditions Change Fed Messaging?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 22, 2023

The Fed’s tone markedly changed in the weeks preceding the November 1 FOMC meeting. Many…

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The Orange Juice Squeeze Is On

The Orange Juice Squeeze Is On

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 21, 2023

The squeeze is on in the orange juice futures market. The price of orange juice…

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Thanksgiving Dinner Prices Will Be Lower This Year

Thanksgiving Dinner Prices Will Be Lower This Year

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 20, 2023

According to a recent article by the American Farm Bureau (AFB), Thanksgiving dinner will be…

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Burrys Big Short Becomes The Big Hurt

Burrys Big Short Becomes The Big Hurt

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 17, 2023

Michael Burry, who made a fortune shorting the subprime market in 2008, and was made…

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Goldmans Goldilocks Economic Forecast And Meh Stock Outlook

Goldmans Goldilocks Economic Forecast And Meh Stock Outlook

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 16, 2023

Goldman Sachs released its 2024 forecast for the S&P 500 and the economy. “We forecast…

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CPI Is Weaker Than Expected

CPI Is Weaker Than Expected

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 15, 2023

All four broad CPI inflation measures were below expectations for the first time in a…

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Moodys Warns Uncle Sam: What To Make Of It?

Moodys Warns Uncle Sam: What To Make Of It?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 14, 2023

Moody’s, the last of the three major credit rating agencies to have an AAA rating…

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Trucking Is In Trouble - RIA

Trucking Is In Trouble – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 13, 2023

Our most recent article, CFNAI, The Most Important & Overlooked Economic Number, shares an important…

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Used Car Prices Continue Downward

Used Car Prices Continue Downward

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 10, 2023

In 2021, used car prices often made headlines as one of the goods responsible for…

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Is Oil Trying To Warn Us Of Something?

Is Oil Trying To Warn Us Of Something?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 9, 2023

On the eve of the Hamas raid on Israel, crude oil was trading at $83…

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The Dollar Consolidates Supporting Stocks And Bonds

The Dollar Consolidates Supporting Stocks And Bonds

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 8, 2023

From mid-July through September, the U.S. dollar rose steadily. Over the period, the dollar’s value…

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The Whales Turn Bullish On Bonds

The Whales Turn Bullish On Bonds

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 7, 2023

Over the last week, some of the largest and most well-followed investors, also known as…

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Labor Report Sends Yields Lower

Labor Report Sends Yields Lower

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 6, 2023

The October labor report, released Friday, indicated slowing job growth in the US last month….

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War Is Being Discounted As Recession Concerns Return

War Is Being Discounted As Recession Concerns Return

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 3, 2023

Almost a month ago, on October 7th, Hamas attacked Israel, and concerns of a much…

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Chairman Powell And The Fed Likely Enter A Long Pause

Chairman Powell And The Fed Likely Enter A Long Pause

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 2, 2023

In the November FOMC statement, Chairman Powell and his colleagues at the Fed did as…

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The BOJ Is Relaxing YCC. Why You Should Care.

The BOJ Is Relaxing YCC. Why You Should Care.

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 1, 2023

The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policy meeting on Tuesday resulted in a shift away from…

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Savings Are Dwindling - RIA

Savings Are Dwindling – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 31, 2023

In early August, we wrote: “The bottom line is that consumers saved less and have…

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Kailash Cautions About Profit Margins

Kailash Cautions About Profit Margins

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 30, 2023

Our friends at Kailash Concepts recently opined on record high-profit margins. Kailash’s graph below shows…

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The Russell 2000 Is Up Against Key Support

The Russell 2000 Is Up Against Key Support

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 27, 2023

Since the rally kicked off last October, the ‘Magnificent Seven’ have outperformed all major stock…

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The Money Supply Is Down 10 Straight Months

The Money Supply Is Down 10 Straight Months

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 26, 2023

As shown below, the U.S. M2 money supply (blue) has declined for ten straight months….

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Deficit Growth In Detail - RIA

Deficit Growth In Detail – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 25, 2023

The Bloomberg graphic below and their article entitled Deficit Doubling as U.S. Economy Grows provide…

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8 Percent Mortgages Take A Toll On Housing

8 Percent Mortgages Take A Toll On Housing

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 24, 2023

30-year mortgage rates just eclipsed 8 percent. With higher mortgage rates, housing affordability tumbles. And,…

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The DOE Sets A 79 Dollar Floor For Oil Prices

The DOE Sets A 79 Dollar Floor For Oil Prices

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 23, 2023

Since 2022, the Department of Energy (DOE) has been selling oil from the Strategic Petroleum…

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Cheap Money Keeps The World Spinning

Cheap Money Keeps The World Spinning

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 20, 2023

The growth of the global economy and the value of the world’s financial assets are…

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A Trucking Recession Amidst An Economic Boom

A Trucking Recession Amidst An Economic Boom

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 19, 2023

Charles Dow, the creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, also created the Dow Theory….

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Two Year Note Futures Fade The Fed and Fed Funds Futures

Two Year Note Futures Fade The Fed and Fed Funds Futures

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 18, 2023

Multiple Commentaries last week noted that a handful of Fed members alluded that the recent…

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The Austin Texas Office Market Is Exploding, But...

The Austin Texas Office Market Is Exploding, But…

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 17, 2023

The Washington Post had an article in Sunday’s paper discussing the explosive growth of office…

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Is Pause The New Fed Narrative?

Is Pause The New Fed Narrative?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 16, 2023

Over this past week, numerous Fed members commented that the Fed may be ready to…

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Inflation Report Draws Unnecessary Concern

Inflation Report Draws Unnecessary Concern

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 13, 2023

Wednesday’s PPI inflation report exceeded expectations, predominately due to higher gasoline prices. As noted in…

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False Narratives Weigh On The Bond Market

False Narratives Weigh On The Bond Market

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 12, 2023

False narratives are stories market pundits tell to justify market actions. Sometimes, they are factual….

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Remains Pessimistic

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Remains Pessimistic

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 11, 2023

The September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (blue) fell to 90.8 from 91.3, remaining near…

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War Boosts The Defense And Energy Sectors

War Boosts The Defense And Energy Sectors

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 10, 2023

On the heels of this past weekend’s attack on Israel, Israel declared its first war…

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Coke And Pepsi Fall Victim To Ozempic

Coke And Pepsi Fall Victim To Ozempic

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 9, 2023

Shares of Coke and Pepsi were down about 5% on Thursday and trending lower as…

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Gasoline Demand Plummets - RIA

Gasoline Demand Plummets – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 6, 2023

The latest U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) report shows that gasoline demand in the U.S….

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Bond Volatility And Crises - RIA

Bond Volatility And Crises – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 5, 2023

Note the series of financial crises in the graph below that have occurred when the…

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Job Openings Increase And Investors Fret

Job Openings Increase And Investors Fret

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 4, 2023

JOLTS reported a substantial increase in the number of job openings. Per the BLS, job…

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Are Junk Bonds Immune To Higher Rates?

Are Junk Bonds Immune To Higher Rates?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 3, 2023

Monday’s Commentary shared a graph showing Fed Funds have risen by 5.25% over the last…

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The FTC Problem at Amazon

The FTC Problem at Amazon

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 2, 2023

Amazon is facing an existing FTC problem that escalated last week. On Tuesday, the Federal…

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Extreme RSI Readings Across Asset Markets

Extreme RSI Readings Across Asset Markets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 29, 2023

The RSI, or the Relative Strength Index, is a momentum indicator measuring the speed and…

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Is It Safe To Buy Small Caps?

Is It Safe To Buy Small Caps?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 28, 2023

In a recent Tweet, @samanthaladuc stated: When is it safe to buy small caps again?…

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7 Stocks Drive The Market, 493 Go Nowhere

7 Stocks Drive The Market, 493 Go Nowhere

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 27, 2023

The S&P 493, which is the S&P 500 excluding the index’s 7 largest stocks, is…

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A Bull Steepener Is An Omen For Stocks

A Bull Steepener Is An Omen For Stocks

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 26, 2023

The 3-month/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverted for 216 consecutive trading days, the…

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The Yield Curve Nears A Golden Cross

The Yield Curve Nears A Golden Cross

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 25, 2023

The Treasury bond yield curve has a near-perfect track record for predicting recessions. Inverted yield…

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Cisco Buys Splunk - RIA

Cisco Buys Splunk – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 22, 2023

In a $28 billion all-cash deal, Cisco (CSCO) is acquiring Splunk (SPLK). Splunk helps companies…

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The Fed Says Higher For Longer, And The Market Agrees

The Fed Says Higher For Longer, And The Market Agrees

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 21, 2023

Jerome Powell and the Fed have been pounding the “higher for longer” table to prepare…

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Housing Starts Plummet As Homebuilder Confidence Wanes

Housing Starts Plummet As Homebuilder Confidence Wanes

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 20, 2023

Higher mortgage rates are resulting in a shortage of inventory of used homes and a…

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Soft Landing Headlines - Optimism Often Precedes Recessions

Soft Landing Headlines – Optimism Often Precedes Recessions

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 19, 2023

Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal published an article entitled Why A Soft Landing…

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Airline Stocks Are Grounded - RIA

Airline Stocks Are Grounded – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 18, 2023

The travel and leisure sector is one of the hottest industries driving job growth. Since…

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The ECB Unexpectedly Raises Rates But Pauses

The ECB Unexpectedly Raises Rates But Pauses

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 15, 2023

“Based on its current assessment, the Governing Council considers that the key ECB interest rates…

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The UAW Is Set To Strike

The UAW Is Set To Strike

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 14, 2023

Ford, GM, and Stellantis (Chrysler), aka the “Big 3,” are in around-the-clock negotiations with the…

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TSLA Stock Jumps By A Ford On Morgan Stanley Commentary

TSLA Stock Jumps By A Ford On Morgan Stanley Commentary

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 13, 2023

Tesla (TSLA) shares jumped 10% on Monday, gaining over $50 billion in market cap in…

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Fed GDP Nowcasts Are All Over The Map

Fed GDP Nowcasts Are All Over The Map

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 12, 2023

Three Fed branches put out economic forecasts of economic activity throughout the current quarter. These…

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Bank Losses Mount Pressuring The Fed To Tread Lightly

Bank Losses Mount Pressuring The Fed To Tread Lightly

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 11, 2023

The FDIC graph shows that banks are sitting on over $500 billion of losses on…

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Chinas Retaliation - RIA

Chinas Retaliation – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 8, 2023

Our Daily Commentary from August 25 summarizes a SimpleVisor stock scan, highlighting companies with high…

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The Stock Bond Relationship Is Shifting Again

The Stock Bond Relationship Is Shifting Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 7, 2023

The top graph below charts stock prices and bond yields. The smaller graph below shows…

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Another Government Shutdown May Be Coming

Another Government Shutdown May Be Coming

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 6, 2023

Three months ago, Congress and the President avoided a shutdown and default on government debt…

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Student Loans Set For Repayment Will Dampen The Economy

Student Loans Set For Repayment Will Dampen The Economy

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 5, 2023

Starting last Friday, interest began accruing on student loans, and on October 1, payments will…

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GDI Or GDP - 2 Economic Measures, 2 Different Messages

GDI Or GDP – 2 Economic Measures, 2 Different Messages

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 1, 2023

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) are two very similar measures of…

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JOLTS And ADP - A Jobs Preview

JOLTS And ADP – A Jobs Preview

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 31, 2023

Tuesday’s JOLTS report and Wednesday’s ADP point to a sudden weakening of the labor markets….

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Retailers Are Struggling Hinting At Weakening Consumers

Retailers Are Struggling Hinting At Weakening Consumers

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 30, 2023

Retailers did well over the last few years as consumers were flush with savings. Reduced…

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MACD Bounce To New Highs?

MACD Bounce To New Highs?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 29, 2023

The MACD, or moving average convergence divergence, is a well-followed technical indicator that helps spot…

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Chair Powell Says Nothing New

Chair Powell Says Nothing New

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 28, 2023

The much-anticipated speech by Chair Powell at the annual Fed Jackson Hole Symposium shed little…

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The Neutral Rate Takes Center Stage

The Neutral Rate Takes Center Stage

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 25, 2023

Jerome Powell presents the Fed’s keynote speech for its annual Jackson Hole symposium this morning….

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Stock Valuations And Real Rates

Stock Valuations And Real Rates

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 24, 2023

Stock valuations provide a gauge of the actual price of a stock. Unlike most goods…

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Philly Fed Slowdown In The Service Sector

Philly Fed Slowdown In The Service Sector

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 23, 2023

As we have discussed for the better part of the year, the national and Fed…

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Is Goldman Sachs Selling At The Top?

Is Goldman Sachs Selling At The Top?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 22, 2023

Goldman Sach’s announced that it is selling its Personal Financial Management Unit. The group manages…

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The Magnificent Seven Have Not Been So Magnificent Lately

The Magnificent Seven Have Not Been So Magnificent Lately

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 21, 2023

Since the start of the year, the magnificent seven have led the stock market’s charge…

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Will China Sell U.S. Bonds?

Will China Sell U.S. Bonds?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 18, 2023

U.S. Treasury yields have been rising recently on varied concerns. One such worry is that…

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The Big Short Part 2 Isn't So Big

The Big Short Part 2 Isn’t So Big

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 16, 2023

Michael Burry, who made a fortune shorting the subprime market in 2008, and was made…

> Read More
No Credit Crunch For Corporate Bonds

No Credit Crunch For Corporate Bonds

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 15, 2023

Monday’s Daily Commentary highlighted four factors that could lead to a credit crunch in the…

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Mortgage Credit Crunch In The Pipeline

Mortgage Credit Crunch In The Pipeline

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 14, 2023

Jaret Seiberg of Cowen & Co. wrote an interesting report pointing to the potential of…

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The CPI Inflation Number Is Better Than Feared

The CPI Inflation Number Is Better Than Feared

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 11, 2023

Year-over-year CPI increased to 3.2% in July from 3.0% in June, ending the streak of…

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Is Volatility Awakening? - RIA

Is Volatility Awakening? – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 10, 2023

The VIX volatility index calculates how much the options markets imply the S&P 500 will…

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Treasury Auctions On Deck - RIA

Treasury Auctions On Deck – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 9, 2023

The U.S. Treasury will auction $38 billion of a ten-year note today and $23 billion…

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Mortgage Rates And Spreads Soar

Mortgage Rates And Spreads Soar

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 8, 2023

It’s no secret that mortgage rates have risen sharply. They now stand above those seen…

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The Employment Report Shows Normalizing Job Growth

The Employment Report Shows Normalizing Job Growth

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 7, 2023

The BLS employment report showed that job growth has finally normalized to pre-pandemic levels. Per…

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TINA Is Back But For The Bond Bulls

TINA Is Back But For The Bond Bulls

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 4, 2023

Equity investors used the acronym TINA to justify buying stocks at excessive valuations. TINA followers…

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Fitch Downgrades America. Does It Matter?

Fitch Downgrades America. Does It Matter?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 3, 2023

On August 5, 2011, S&P downgraded the United States’ credit rating to AA+. Almost to…

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XOM Is Diversifying Well Beyond Oil

XOM Is Diversifying Well Beyond Oil

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 2, 2023

Yesterday we learned that Exxon (XOM) is in talks with Tesla, Ford, and Volkswagen about…

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Kashkari Is A Moderating Hawk

Kashkari Is A Moderating Hawk

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 1, 2023

In last week’s Commentary, Doves Versus Hawks, we stated: “There appear to be two camps…

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Flexible Japanese Monetary Policy Weighs On U.S. Bonds

Flexible Japanese Monetary Policy Weighs On U.S. Bonds

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 31, 2023

Ten and 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yields rose sharply, with their yields piercing 4%. The…

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Doves Versus Hawks. The Differing Views Propelling Policy

Doves Versus Hawks. The Differing Views Propelling Policy

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 28, 2023

The Fed has raised rates by 5.50% in a little over a year. For the…

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PacWest is Back in the Headlines

PacWest is Back in the Headlines

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 27, 2023

Remember PacWest? Following the demise of Silicon Valley, Silvergate, and Signature banks in March, PacWest…

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Lower Rates Limited Stimulus - The Feds Future Headache

Lower Rates Limited Stimulus – The Feds Future Headache

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 26, 2023

Over the last thirty years, the Fed has relied on lower interest rates to pump…

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Taylor Swift and The Swifties Are Pumping the Economy

Taylor Swift and The Swifties Are Pumping the Economy

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 25, 2023

“Despite the slowing recovery in tourism in the region overall, one contact highlighted that May…

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Consumer Borrowing Facing Headwinds - RIA

Consumer Borrowing Facing Headwinds – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 24, 2023

The recent New York Fed Credit Access Survey report shows consumer borrowing is becoming more…

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Albert Edwards Asks What on Earth is Going On?

Albert Edwards Asks What on Earth is Going On?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 21, 2023

Albert Edwards of Societe Generale wrote a thought-provoking piece based on the graph below. He…

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Will the Nasdaq Rebalance be a Nothing Burger?

Will the Nasdaq Rebalance be a Nothing Burger?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 20, 2023

On July 24th, the Nasdaq 100 will reduce the weightings of its top seven holdings…

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Are The Treasury and Fed Managing Market Liquidity?

Are The Treasury and Fed Managing Market Liquidity?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 19, 2023

The federal debt cap was lifted on June 3, 2023. The Treasury immediately flooded the…

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Europe Is Facing Economic Stagnation

Europe Is Facing Economic Stagnation

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 18, 2023

Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal led with a troubling article on Europe’s economy. Their article, Europeans…

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Mixed Bank Earnings Kick Off Q2 Results

Mixed Bank Earnings Kick Off Q2 Results

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 17, 2023

Earnings season began with mixed results from three of the largest US banks on Friday….

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Are Small Cap Stocks Next Up For a Rally?

Are Small Cap Stocks Next Up For a Rally?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 14, 2023

The Magnificent Seven (Apple, Amazon, Google, NVIDIA, Meta, Tesla, and Microsoft) have been on a…

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The CPI Dilemma, Decoding Monthly vs Annual Inflation Rates

The CPI Dilemma, Decoding Monthly vs Annual Inflation Rates

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 13, 2023

The BofA graph below (right) is making the rounds on Twitter and causing investors quite…

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As Goes Bank Credit Goes GDP

As Goes Bank Credit Goes GDP

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 12, 2023

The US and much of the global economy are driven by bank credit. Since debt…

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The Coming NASDAQ 100 Rebalancing

The Coming NASDAQ 100 Rebalancing

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 11, 2023

NASDAQ announced it will rebalance the NASDAQ 100 Index to “address overconcentration in the index…

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The Labor Market Remains Hot

The Labor Market Remains Hot

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 10, 2023

The past week’s labor market data continued to show strength. However, the week’s data varied…

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5 Year Real Rates are Soaring

5 Year Real Rates are Soaring

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 7, 2023

The Federal Reserve closely follows how restrictive or easy its monetary policy is. While many…

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Are Household Savings Still Driving the Economy?

Are Household Savings Still Driving the Economy?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 6, 2023

Since 2020, individuals and corporations have been provided significant funds from the government to combat…

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Long Term Valuations Remain Hefty

Long Term Valuations Remain Hefty

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 5, 2023

Over the last three years, massive amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus and irregular economic…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

Is Nike A Precursor of Weaker Earnings?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 3, 2023

Last week Nike reported a fourth-quarter net income of .66 cents a share, down from…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

Will Second Half Performance Follow the First Half?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 30, 2023

The S&P 500 rose 13% in the first quarter, the third-best first-half-of-the-year performance since 2000….

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

Uninversion Not A Yield Curve Inversion Signals Recessions

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 29, 2023

Our most recent article, Treasury Yield Curves- Is This Inversion Different, explains why inverted yield…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

House Prices May Struggle: Renting vs. Owning

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 28, 2023

In yesterday’s Commentary, we shed light on why permits and starts for new house construction…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

Volatility and Stocks Are Defying History

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 27, 2023

Over the last thirty years, the relationship between stock prices and stock market volatility has…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

Activity is Slowing in the Eurozone Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 26, 2023

Business activity is slowing in the Eurozone once again. The Eurozone’s composite PMI for June,…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

The DOE Loan to Bring Battery Production Onshore

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 23, 2023

BlueOval, a joint venture between Ford and South Korean battery maker SK, will receive a…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

The Fed Pause is Likely Temporary

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 22, 2023

Powell delivered remarks to Congress yesterday on the outlook for the economy and banking system….

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

PE’s Bet on Profits Over Protection

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 21, 2023

Private Equity (PE) firms are known for their use of leveraged buyouts in acquiring targets….

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

Regional Banks Crisis Update – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 20, 2023

In mid-March, Silicon Valley Bank failed, and it appeared many smaller regional banks were facing…

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Labor Markets - The Deciding Factor for Recessions

Labor Markets – The Deciding Factor for Recessions

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 16, 2023

Since 1955 every recession was met with weak labor markets. On average, over the 75…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

Fed Dot Plots Steal the FOMC Show

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 15, 2023

With the Fed pausing rate hikes yesterday, as was widely expected, the focus is now…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

CPI and the FOMC Meeting

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 14, 2023

Yesterday’s CPI data and today’s FOMC meeting will guide monetary policy expectations for the summer…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

VIX and MOVE- A Tale of Two Markets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 13, 2023

Implied volatility in the stock (VIX) and bond markets (MOVE) tell an unusual tale of…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

Bullish on Cattle But not COW

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 12, 2023

The price of cattle futures has been bullish since troughing during the early days of…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

Eurozone Revised into a Recession

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 9, 2023

The Eurozone just entered a recession as the region posted two consecutive quarters of negative…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

Bitcoin Trading Isn’t Boring Enough

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 8, 2023

Trading Bitcoin since its inception has been like riding a roller coaster. In January 2015,…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

ISM Service Sector- Some Good and Bad

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 7, 2023

The ISM manufacturing and service sector surveys are robust leading economic indicators as they provide…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Production Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 6, 2023

This past weekend Saudi Arabia decided unilaterally to cut an additional million barrels of oil…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

Office Vacancies Are On the Rise

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 5, 2023

Exceedingly low-interest rates spurred a boom in office construction in the decade following the financial…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

May Market Recap- 20-Year Anomalies

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 2, 2023

“More than 100% of SPX market cap gains this year have been driven by just…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

Costco Customers Shift To Pork- Another Recession Warning

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 1, 2023

In its recent earnings call, Costco’s CFO gave a unique warning about the potential for…

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Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully - RIA

Debt Ceiling Deal, Hopefully – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 31, 2023

President Biden and Republicans have agreed in principle to a debt ceiling deal. While news…

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The PCE Price Index Increases the Odds of Fed Hike

The PCE Price Index Increases the Odds of Fed Hike

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 30, 2023

The PCE Price Index is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and it’s the inflation reading…

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NVDA and AI Stocks Surge on Strong Guidance

NVDA and AI Stocks Surge on Strong Guidance

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 26, 2023

Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA), one of the biggest beneficiaries of AI technologies, soared Thursday as its…

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Liquidity Drain Coming Soon - RIA

Liquidity Drain Coming Soon – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 25, 2023

Current estimates predict the U.S. Treasury will raise between $600 and $700 billion once Congress…

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Gold Prices Are Untethered Until The Fed Turns Dovish

Gold Prices Are Untethered Until The Fed Turns Dovish

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 24, 2023

In March and April, the price of gold rose by 15% as the debt cap…

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Debt Crisis Stalemate, Again - RIA

Debt Crisis Stalemate, Again – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 23, 2023

Do the headlines below sound familiar? They should because the same fears and political rhetoric…

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VIX at 16 is Bullish

VIX at 16 is Bullish

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 22, 2023

Last week, the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) fell below 16 for the first time…

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Saudi Arabia Says Phooey to Dedollarization

Saudi Arabia Says Phooey to Dedollarization

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 19, 2023

We led a recent article about de-dollarization with the following quote: “For those losing sleep…

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Dollar Bounce or Breakdown? - RIA

Dollar Bounce or Breakdown? – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 18, 2023

Despite the Debt Cap circus and continual default threats, the dollar has bounced 2% over…

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IEA Says Oil Supply Crunch is Coming

IEA Says Oil Supply Crunch is Coming

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 17, 2023

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has some bullish and bearish news for oil prices. In…

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Home Depot, Target, and Walmart Earnings on Deck

Home Depot, Target, and Walmart Earnings on Deck

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 16, 2023

Home Depot, Target, and Walmart announce their earnings today, tomorrow, and Thursday, respectively. Given their…

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Office Vacancies, Another Threat to Regional Banks

Office Vacancies, Another Threat to Regional Banks

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 15, 2023

Regional bank woes have thus far been a function of interest rate risk, not credit…

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A Tale of Three Markets

A Tale of Three Markets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 12, 2023

Three well-followed market indexes provide investors with three different tales. These tales are a function…

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Inflation Surprise or More Stickiness?

Inflation Surprise or More Stickiness?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 11, 2023

The April CPI inflation headline number, most followed by the media, provided a pleasant downward…

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Value Stocks and Passive Distortions

Value Stocks and Passive Distortions

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 10, 2023

Today’s Commentary focuses on passive investment strategies and how they are making difficult decisions for…

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Tighter Lending Standards Confirmed by Fed Survey

Tighter Lending Standards Confirmed by Fed Survey

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 9, 2023

The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) confirmed a widely…

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Employment Report Spoils Hopes for Rate Cut in July

Employment Report Spoils Hopes for Rate Cut in July

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 8, 2023

Friday’s employment report revealed that Nonfarm Payrolls rose 253,000 last month, crushing expectations of a…

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How Long Until The Fed Cuts Rates?

How Long Until The Fed Cuts Rates?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 5, 2023

Yesterday’s Commentary, Is the Fed Done, contemplates whether or not Wednesday’s rate hike was the…

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Is The Fed Done?

Is The Fed Done?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 4, 2023

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 5.00-5.25%, hinting at a pause in…

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The Fed and Treasury Will Soon Be At Odds

The Fed and Treasury Will Soon Be At Odds

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 3, 2023

Treasury bond prices fell sharply on Monday and rallied back strongly on Tuesday as traders…

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Size Seems To Be All That Matters

Size Seems To Be All That Matters

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 2, 2023

Since Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse in early March, only one stock factor has mattered for…

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Bad Market Breadth Warrants Caution

Bad Market Breadth Warrants Caution

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 1, 2023

The equity markets surged last Thursday and continued upward on Friday on poor economic news…

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Velocity is the Oft Overlooked Inflation Component

Velocity is the Oft Overlooked Inflation Component

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 28, 2023

When most economic prognosticators forecast inflation, they often base it on money supply changes. At…

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Freight Recession Warns UPS and JB Hunt

Freight Recession Warns UPS and JB Hunt

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 27, 2023

Last week JB Hunt Transportation Services (JBHT) warned that the freight trucking sector was slowing…

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High Yield Investors Are Rosier Than Most

High Yield Investors Are Rosier Than Most

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 26, 2023

The graph below from Bloomberg provides an interesting analysis of what odds, so to speak,…

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Individual Investors Versus Hedge Funds

Individual Investors Versus Hedge Funds

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 25, 2023

Individual investors bought a net $78 billion in stocks and ETFs in the first quarter….

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Cathie Wood Thinks Tesla Shares Hit $2000

Cathie Wood Thinks Tesla Shares Hit $2000

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 24, 2023

Cathie Wood of ARK Invest put a 2027 price target on Tesla shares at $2000….

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Bear or Bull Market? - RIA

Bear or Bull Market? – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 21, 2023

Many investors are questioning whether we are in the grips of a bear market or…

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Netflix Stock Signals The Bull May Be Back

Netflix Stock Signals The Bull May Be Back

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 20, 2023

In late 2020 and throughout 2021, earnings didn’t matter. That statement is a little tongue…

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Is TLT Signalling Coming SPY Weakness?

Is TLT Signalling Coming SPY Weakness?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 19, 2023

Throughout 2022, higher bond yields scared off equity investors. Such a relationship is not surprising…

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Dollar Index Sits on Key Support

Dollar Index Sits on Key Support

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 18, 2023

After falling about 15% from October 2022 to late January 2023, the dollar index bounced…

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Big Banks Don't Disappoint - RIA

Big Banks Don’t Disappoint – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 17, 2023

JP Morgan and Wells Fargo led off earnings season on Friday. Despite the woes hitting…

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Fed Downgrades Forecast to a Mild Recession

Fed Downgrades Forecast to a Mild Recession

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 14, 2023

The FOMC minutes show Fed members collectively downgraded their economic forecast for 2023. Instead of…

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Equity Volatility Grinds to a Halt

Equity Volatility Grinds to a Halt

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 13, 2023

Volatility in the equity markets has fallen significantly over the last few weeks. The graph…

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Hedge Fund Shorts Are Extreme

Hedge Fund Shorts Are Extreme

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 12, 2023

At the bottom of this Commentary, we share a popular Tweet warning that Hedge Funds…

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Bank Loans Shrink At A Disturbing Pace

Bank Loans Shrink At A Disturbing Pace

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 11, 2023

CPI, Retail Sales, and Employment are often the three most important economic data releases in…

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30 Year Yields Break Lower

30 Year Yields Break Lower

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 10, 2023

We added to our 30 year UST bond exposure on Wednesday via the ETF TLT….

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Will Robots Dominate the Workforce?

Will Robots Dominate the Workforce?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 6, 2023

As we gear up for Friday’s employment report, we wonder if we are in the…

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Bond Markets Are Also Sending Confusing Messages

Bond Markets Are Also Sending Confusing Messages

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 5, 2023

Our most recent newsletter (Analysts Warn of Recession. Analysts Disagree) discusses confusing signals emanating from…

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Oil Prices Surge on OPEC Cut

Oil Prices Surge on OPEC Cut

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 4, 2023

In a surprise announcement Sunday morning, OPEC cut oil production by 1.15 million barrels per…

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Demand Drives Inflation - RIA

Demand Drives Inflation – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 3, 2023

Thomas Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed, made a very important pronouncement on Thursday. In…

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Nasdaq Bull Market or False Hope

Nasdaq Bull Market or False Hope

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 31, 2023

Bloomberg heralds “Nasdaq 100 Enters Bull Market as Bank Jitters Ease.” The Nasdaq is now…

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Is Cash on the Sidelines Bullish?

Is Cash on the Sidelines Bullish?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 30, 2023

We have read commentary equating the sharp increase in money market assets with cash on…

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Berkshire Hathaway Loves Oxy - RIA

Berkshire Hathaway Loves Oxy – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 29, 2023

Warren Buffett’s firm, Berkshire Hathaway, continues to amass a large position in Occidental Petroleum (OXY)….

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Small Cap Stocks Lose Favor To Techs

Small Cap Stocks Lose Favor To Techs

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 28, 2023

Alongside the financial and REIT sectors, small cap stocks are falling victim to the banking…

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Is Deutsche Bank The Next Domino?

Is Deutsche Bank The Next Domino?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 27, 2023

Deutsche Bank shares fell more than 10% on Friday and over 30% since March 1…

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Credit Risks Trump Inflation Concerns

Credit Risks Trump Inflation Concerns

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 24, 2023

Courtesy of BofA, the survey results below show that professional money managers are now more…

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Pause and Pivot or Full Steam Ahead?

Pause and Pivot or Full Steam Ahead?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 23, 2023

Yesterday’s FOMC meeting was likely one of the toughest for the Fed in a long…

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The Silent Bank Run - RIA

The Silent Bank Run – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 22, 2023

Long before Silicon Valley Bank failed, the banking sector was experiencing a silent bank run….

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UBS Bank Bailout of Credit Suisse May Open Pandora's Box

UBS Bank Bailout of Credit Suisse May Open Pandora’s Box

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 21, 2023

The Silicon Valley Bank failure, originally considered a one-off event, is escalating and spreading. On…

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Expect the Fed to Follow ECB’s Lead This Week

Expect the Fed to Follow ECB’s Lead This Week

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 20, 2023

The FOMC will announce its decision on the Fed Funds rate policy this Wednesday. Given…

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Fed Mandates or Financial Stability

Fed Mandates or Financial Stability

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 17, 2023

Heading into next week’s FOMC meeting, the Fed’s big dilemna is whether to address recent…

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Credit Suisse Bank is Next on the Docket

Credit Suisse Bank is Next on the Docket

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 16, 2023

Shares of Credit Suisse and other large European banks traded sharply lower yesterday. This occurs…

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Rate Pivot or Higher For Longer

Rate Pivot or Higher For Longer

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 15, 2023

Less than a week after Jerome Powell was pounding the table on Capitol Hill, arguing…

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BTFP The Latest Bank Bailout

BTFP The Latest Bank Bailout

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 14, 2023

On Sunday afternoon, the Fed and Treasury rode the rescue with the Bank Term Funding…

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Silicon Valley Bank Default Rattles the Markets

Silicon Valley Bank Default Rattles the Markets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 13, 2023

Banking is relatively simple, they raise deposits and lend money. To do so successfully, a…

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Delinquent Consumer Loans on the Rise

Delinquent Consumer Loans on the Rise

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 10, 2023

The chart below showing delinquent consumer loans is concerning but misleading. At first blush, the…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Tightening Phase 2, More QT?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 9, 2023

Over the last twelve months, the Fed has been tightening policy at its most aggressive…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Bank Profit Margins At Risk

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 8, 2023

The yield curve is often used as a proxy for bank profit margins. The logic…

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Bullish 0DTE Bets - RIA

Bullish 0DTE Bets – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 7, 2023

0DTE options are speculative option trades that expire within a day of expiration. Furthermore, and…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Rent Burden, An Economic Tax

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 6, 2023

Per a recent Yahoo article: “The average American renter is now paying more than 30…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

ISM Survey Avoids Sounding the Recession Alarm

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 3, 2023

The graph below shows that a sub-45 reading on the ISM manufacturing survey index has…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Home Purchase Index Drops to 25+ Year Low

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 2, 2023

Wednesday’s Home Purchase Index fell sharply to the lowest level since 1995. The index compiled…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Staples or Discretionary Stocks? – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 1, 2023

Consumer staple companies typically include companies that sell essential goods. As such, earnings growth tends…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Apartment Rents Will Dampen Inflation

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 28, 2023

Housing comprises almost 40% of CPI, of which rents account for about three-quarters of that…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

German Economy Slips, Will The U.S. Follow?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 27, 2023

German economic growth in the fourth quarter was revised lower to negative 0.4%. More concerning,…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Corporate Bonds Have No Recession Fears

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 24, 2023

Tuesday’s Commentary led with a discussion of equity valuations and margins. Both are well above…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Natural Gas Prices Plummet – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 23, 2023

In mid-August, the price of natural gas peaked at $9.33. Forecasts for a cold winter…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Margins and Valuations Put Stocks at Risk

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 22, 2023

These days the financial media spends a lot of effort linking the Fed’s future actions…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Higher for Longer Spurs the Dollar

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 21, 2023

As we share in a section below, it is becoming more evident the Fed intends…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Crypto Is Coming Back To Life

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 17, 2023

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rose over 10% on Wednesday. Per the graph below, Bitcoin, the…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

5 Percent Yields Incentivize Cash Allocations

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 16, 2023

6-month and 1-year Treasury bills yields are above 5 percent, marking the first time a…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Hot Inflation Print Affirms Fed’s Stance

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 15, 2023

The hot January CPI report bolsters the Fed’s view that inflation will not fall as…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Meme Stocks For 2023? – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 14, 2023

The scatter plot below compares various stock factor returns for 2022 and 2023, year to…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Economic Confusion – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 13, 2023

In our Commentary 2023 Challenge: Contradiction, we discussed Lance’s recent article, The Technicals Vs. The…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

10 Year Treasury Auction Sees Great Demand

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 10, 2023

Wednesday’s 10-year Treasury auction was met with solid demand. More interestingly, the demand is not…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

2023 Challenge: Contradiction – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 9, 2023

As we start 2023, the challenge this year for investors appears to be whether we…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Yellen Says No Recession On The Horizon

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 8, 2023

Yesterday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated: “You don’t have a recession when you have…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Corporate Bond Spreads and Defaults Set to Increase

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 7, 2023

The graphs below point to a potential problem for corporate bond investors. The graph on…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Apple Earnings Break a 7 Year Streak

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 6, 2023

Apple missed earnings estimates for the first time in seven years or the last 28…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

BLS Employment Preview – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 3, 2023

Heading into today’s BLS employment report, it’s worth summarizing other recent labor market data. Keep…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

The Fed Funds Rate Inches Higher

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 2, 2023

As expected, the FOMC increased the Fed Funds rate by 25bps to 4.50%. They also…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

FOMC Cheat Sheet – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 1, 2023

At 2 pm ET, the FOMC releases its Fed Funds rate decision, and Powell will…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Sector Rotation- 2022 vs 2023

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 31, 2023

While only a month into the new year, 2023 has been marked by a sector…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Fed Funds Forecasts- Mind The Gap

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 30, 2023

As we consider how the Fed might adjust the Fed Funds rate on Wednesday, it’s…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Is Chat GPT Good For Microsoft’s Earnings?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 27, 2023

We asked Chat GPT, the new artificial intelligence (AI) engine, that exact question. The answer…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Real Value Versus Wall Street Value

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 26, 2023

A shift to stocks that offer real value and dividends is one of our key…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Leading Indicators Warn of Recession Ahead

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 25, 2023

The U.S. Leading Economic Indicators, compiled by the Conference Board, fell by 1.0%. The decline…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Major Markets Test A Critical Juncture

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 24, 2023

The S&P 500 and other major markets are testing a critical juncture. As we highlight…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Summers Warns the Fed – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 23, 2023

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers spoke strongly to CNBC about the necessity for the…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

The Debt Limit Is Upon Us Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 20, 2023

The Debt Limit has been reached, and the Treasury is resorting to “extraordinary measures” to…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Yen On A Rollercoaster As The BOJ Disappoints

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 19, 2023

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its short-term interest rate at -.10% and vowed to…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

0DTE, Volatility is Lurking Behind the Scenes

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 18, 2023

Despite its growing popularity among retail investors and influence on markets, 0DTE is probably a…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Banks Kick Off Earnings Season

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 17, 2023

Earnings from the big banks were generally good, but the banks expressed concern about the…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Homebuilder Cancellations Are Off The Charts

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 13, 2023

The HOPE analysis we presented in Monday’s Commentary addressed the typical progression of economic data…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

A Golden Cross Promises More Upside

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 12, 2023

A golden cross occurs when a shorter moving average crosses above a longer moving average….

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Market Shelter With Dividend Aristocrats

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 11, 2023

Last year, as the market trended lower, higher dividend stocks sheltered investors from the storm….

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

The HOPE Cycle – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 10, 2023

Michael Kantro, CIO of Piper Sandler, uses the HOPE cycle to show the order in…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Silvergate Capital, Another Crypto Victim

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 9, 2023

Silvergate Capital (SI) fell 40% on Thursday and is down by nearly 80% over the…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Goldilocks Is Not A Likely Scenario

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 6, 2023

The Fed Funds Futures market implies the Fed will raise the Fed Funds rate to…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Large Cap or Small Cap Stocks For 2023?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 5, 2023

Many passive investors, such as those in retirement plans, use the start of a new…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

The Elephant In The Room -QT

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 4, 2023

Entering 2023, investors seem to singularly focus on the Fed’s interest rate policy, not the…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Looking Back So We Can Look Ahead

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 3, 2023

Looking back at what drove asset prices is a crucial part of the forecasting process…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Window Dressing Trades In Reverse Pulls Stocks Higher

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 30, 2022

While we are still in 2022, stocks traded on Thursday will settle in 2023. This…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Mastercard Spending Suggests a Meh Christmas

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 29, 2022

Mastercard’s SpendingPulse report provides valuable information on credit card spending through the holiday buying season….

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Southwest Airlines Struggles after Holiday Cancellations

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 28, 2022

Extremely harsh weather conditions from winter storm Elliot resulted in thousands of flight cancellations last…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

The Covid Virus Hits China, Adding Inflationary Pressures

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 27, 2022

China’s National Health Commission announced that approximately 250 million citizens, or 18% of its population,…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

The Put Call Ratio Soars- What Does it Mean?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 23, 2022

The put-call ratio is a simple calculation comparing the number of outstanding puts versus calls….

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

FedEx and Nike Jump On Earnings

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 22, 2022

Quarterly earnings reports from FedEx and Nike were well received on Wall Street. While investors…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

The Bank of Japan Shocks The World

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 21, 2022

While the world’s central banker’s aggressively hiked interest rates and curtailed QE to fight inflation,…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

2023 Road Map – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 20, 2022

The road map for 2023 may continue to depend heavily on the Fed’s monetary policy…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Bad News is Bad News Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 19, 2022

The markets went through an extended period earlier this year where bad news was good…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

New York Manufacturing Survey Validates The Fed

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 16, 2022

The key takeaway from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting: despite encouraging inflation news, the Fed believes they…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

50bps and More Hikes Coming

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 15, 2022

As was widely expected, the Fed hiked rates by 50bps to 4.25% – 4.50%. Currently,…

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Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Lower Inflation Reading Spurs the Bull

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 14, 2022

Stocks jumped out of the gate yesterday morning as lower-than-expected inflation readings led investors to…

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The Treasury Is Boosting Liquidity For Now

The Treasury Is Boosting Liquidity For Now

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 13, 2022

The U.S. Treasury department hit its debt limit on August 1st. As a result, they…

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The Feds Path Ahead - RIA

The Feds Path Ahead – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 10, 2022

Monetary policy governs financial market liquidity which drives asset prices. Therefore, as the Fed continues…

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Carvana Goes Kerplop - RIA

Carvana Goes Kerplop – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 9, 2022

Carvana, the online used car dealer, has had quite the fall from glory. On Wednesday,…

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Private REITs - The Next Liquidity Victim

Private REITs – The Next Liquidity Victim

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 8, 2022

As the Fed pulls liquidity from the financial system, those using too much leverage and…

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Financial Conditions Take Front and Center Stage

Financial Conditions Take Front and Center Stage

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 7, 2022

In Jerome Powell’s speech last week, which drove the markets 3% higher, he offered a…

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Diverging Sentiment Readings Raise Recession Risk

Diverging Sentiment Readings Raise Recession Risk

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 6, 2022

MarketWatch recently pointed out that two well-followed measures of consumer sentiment are diverging and possibly…

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Job Growth Will Keep Powell Anxious

Job Growth Will Keep Powell Anxious

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 5, 2022

Last Wednesday Powell stated: “wage growth remains well above levels that would be consistent with…

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Timiraos Pours Cold Water on Powell Bulls

Timiraos Pours Cold Water on Powell Bulls

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 2, 2022

Stocks shot higher on Wednesday after Chair Powell’s speech. Looking for good news, the bulls…

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Positioning or Sentiment- Diverging Investor Logic

Positioning or Sentiment- Diverging Investor Logic

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 1, 2022

According to the most recent AAII sentiment poll, bears have outnumbered bulls for 35 consecutive…

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Flattening The Curve - Fed Style

Flattening The Curve – Fed Style

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 30, 2022

At 1:30, Jerome Powell will update the public on his views. This will be his…

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Crude Oil is Plunging, Will Energy Stocks Follow?

Crude Oil is Plunging, Will Energy Stocks Follow?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 29, 2022

Crude oil prices are now down on the year, despite almost doubling in the first…

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Junk Bonds Have No Fear

Junk Bonds Have No Fear

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 28, 2022

A recession is very unlikely if the only recession gauge one was following is the…

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Continuing Jobless Claims and Recessions

Continuing Jobless Claims and Recessions

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 25, 2022

The most closely followed measures of employment tend to be lagging indicators. However, there is…

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Financial Stability or Is Something Breaking?

Financial Stability or Is Something Breaking?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 23, 2022

Recently we have noted that the odds are increasing that financial instability, or as we…

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Coinbase Bankruptcy Risks Rise - RIA

Coinbase Bankruptcy Risks Rise – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 22, 2022

On April 14, 2021, shares of Coinbase, a cryptocurrency broker/custodian, were first publically traded. The…

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Will The World Cup Kick Off Weakness?

Will The World Cup Kick Off Weakness?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 21, 2022

Markets were spared when the Houston Astros won the world series. As we highlighted in…

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Tech Layoffs, Who Cares? - RIA

Tech Layoffs, Who Cares? – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 18, 2022

Meta cut 11,000 jobs. Twitter let 3,700 employees go. Stripe, Coinbase, and Microsoft all fired…

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Target FedEx and Amazon Caution About The Holidays

Target FedEx and Amazon Caution About The Holidays

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 17, 2022

Tar­get reported poor earnings ($1.54 versus $2.13 expected) and revised its outlook lower. They claim…

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New York Fed Points to Higher Inflation Expectations

New York Fed Points to Higher Inflation Expectations

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 16, 2022

In addition to CPI, PPI, and PCE data, the Fed relies on consumer inflation expectations…

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Waller Reminds Investors "We've got a ways to go"

Waller Reminds Investors “We’ve got a ways to go”

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 15, 2022

“The market seems to have gotten way out in front over this one CPI report….

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A Sigh of Relief for Bulls

A Sigh of Relief for Bulls

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 14, 2022

Bulls released a huge sigh of relief last week after encouraging inflation data prompted a…

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Good Inflation Print, But Is It Enough for Powell?

Good Inflation Print, But Is It Enough for Powell?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 11, 2022

Stocks and bonds had an especially bullish reaction to new data out Thursday showing that…

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Just Left Hanging - RIA

Just Left Hanging – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 10, 2022

As we reported yesterday, a liquidity crunch brought cryptocurrency exchange FTX to its knees on…

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Get Ready for Some Holiday Deals!

Get Ready for Some Holiday Deals!

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 9, 2022

Remember the bullwhip effect? Retailers and wholesalers massively over ordered merchandise following supply chain shocks…

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All Eyes on Midterms Today

All Eyes on Midterms Today

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 8, 2022

All eyes will be on the Midterms today as investors assess the outcome’s implications for…

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Dashed Hopes for a Different Perspective

Dashed Hopes for a Different Perspective

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 7, 2022

As we wrote on Friday, investors were disappointed again last week after Jerome Powell failed…

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Charlie Brown Syndrome Strikes the Markets Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 4, 2022

Stock investors are screaming “AAUGH!” as Jerome Powell duped them again. In one of the…

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Another Step on the Path to 5%

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 3, 2022

The Fed took another step Wednesday on its path to slay inflation. As widely expected,…

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Monetary Headwinds Accentuate Q4 Risks

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 2, 2022

Monetary headwinds, already proving difficult for stock prices, are expected to strengthen in the next…

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Commodity Miners Are The Lynchpin To EV Production

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 1, 2022

The Financial Times reports that Tesla is holding preliminary talks with Glencore, a large commodity…

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FAANGs Make for a Scary Halloween

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 30, 2022

The FAANGs are taking a Halloween bite out of many investors’ goody bags. FAANG stocks,…

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Fed’s Yield Curve Forecasts Recession

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 28, 2022

Q3 GDP rose nicely, but the Fed’s preferred yield curve has spoken. It says a…

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A Balanced Portfolio Promises a Better 2023

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 27, 2022

Since 1950 there have only been four other instances in which a balanced 60/40 stock/bond…

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More Intervention- Another Country Signals Financial Crisis

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 26, 2022

Monday’s Commentary discussed the BOJ’s dual interventions to cap bond yields and prevent its currency…

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BOJ is Wedged Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 25, 2022

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is intervening again in its currency market to prevent more…

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Leading Economic Indicators Point to a Coming Recession

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 24, 2022

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators Index (LEI) is a robust predictor of coming recessions,…

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The Fog of Inflation War

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 21, 2022

Per Wikipedia, the Fog of War is “the uncertainty in situational awareness experienced by participants…

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Stranger Things – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 20, 2022

The latest release of the series Stranger Things helped Netflix (NFLX) achieve better-than-expected earnings and…

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Bank Deposits Are Shrinking – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 19, 2022

You may be thinking, why should I care about bank deposits? There are a couple…

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The Fall of Tesla – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 18, 2022

Tesla’s fall from grace has been swift. The first graph below shows that over the…

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Pivot, Not So Fast – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 17, 2022

We lead with an appropriate cartoon from HedgeEye. In the current environment, investors appear singularly…

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Shelter Skews CPI Higher – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 14, 2022

CPI was higher than expected, primarily due to sharply rising shelter prices. Shelter prices are…

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ARKK and AGG- Revisiting the Tortoise & Hare

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 13, 2022

Below, we share a summary of an article we published Wednesday. It discusses how the…

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Prime Day Again- Desperation and Lower Prices

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 12, 2022

Amazon kicked off its second Prime Day of 2022, offering great deals to its customers….

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Foreign Banks Are Selling Bonds

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 11, 2022

In our article Bond Yields Are Defying Yesterday’s Logic, we walked through traditional drivers of…

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Jobs Market Remains Robust – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 10, 2022

Despite rising interest rates and slowing economic activity, the jobs market remains robust. The BLS…

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The Fed’s Repo Program Is Reducing Market Liquidity

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 7, 2022

The Federal Reserve has a big hand when it comes to market liquidity. While the…

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The United Nations and IMF Warn the Fed

The United Nations and IMF Warn the Fed

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 6, 2022

ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE: Our apologies for yesterday’s lack of new commentary. We had a technical glitch…

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Is Credit Suisse On The Ropes?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 4, 2022

Rumors are floating around that Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-largest bank, is having financial difficulties. Accordingly,…

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Q4 Brings Hope After a Dismal Q3

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 3, 2022

This past quarter (Q3), investors took their lumps. However, seasonality analysis points to a positive…

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Pension Funds and Leverage Threaten Financial Stability

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 30, 2022

Thursday’s Daily Commentary led with the story of the Bank of England’s (BOE) temporary purchases…

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Bank of England Cries Uncle

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 29, 2022

Just days after raising interest rates and starting QT, the Bank of England is taking…

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Stocks or Bonds? – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 28, 2022

Many investors are frequently reallocating their holdings between stocks and bonds. This year, figuring out…

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FX Volatility Threatens The Fed’s Plans

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 27, 2022

The British Pound (GBP) opened trading on Sunday night at 1.08. Within the first hour…

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Dollar Strength Leading to Investor Pain

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 26, 2022

Why are stocks, bonds, and commodities tumbling? To answer, one only needs to look at…

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Japan Says Enough is Enough

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 23, 2022

U.S. Investors woke to the following headline yesterday morning: “JAPAN TOP CURRENCY DIPLOMAT KANDA: FOREX…

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Hawkish Tone Prevails at the Fed

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 22, 2022

As we and many suspected, the Fed and Jerome Powell are not backing off their…

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FOMC Policy Alternatives- Hawkish or Dovish?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 21, 2022

At 2 pm ET, the Fed’s FOMC will update monetary policy. Given the Fed’s role…

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100bps? Fed Meeting Kicks Off

100bps? Fed Meeting Kicks Off

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 20, 2022

The Fed’s two-day policy meeting kicks off this morning with expectations of a 75bps Fed…

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Fed Ex Says Global Recession is Here

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 19, 2022

Fed Ex stock fell about 20% after they delivered disappointing earnings and significantly lowered forward…

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Rail Strike Averted- Price Wage Spiral Accentuated

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 16, 2022

The nation’s supply lines were spared a massive blow as the rail workers union and…

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4 Percent Money Market Yields- Is It Enough?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 15, 2022

In the tweet below, Lance asks investors a critical question. Is 4 percent enough of…

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Options Expiration On Friday: Buckle Up

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 14, 2022

This Friday’s quad witching options expirations can generate a lot of market volatility. At the…

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Household Net Worth Plummets – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 13, 2022

U.S. household net worth fell in 2Q22 by $6.1 trillion following a slight decline in…

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Dollar Dump and Everything Else Jumps

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 12, 2022

Traders dumped the U.S. dollar on Friday, and most asset classes rallied. It is becoming…

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Goldman Sachs Follows The Fed’s Lead

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 9, 2022

The Fed’s media mouthpiece, Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, let it be known…

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Flatten The Curve, Again – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 8, 2022

A year or two ago, politicians were demanding we need to flatten the curve. At…

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OPEC Production Cuts- Does It Matter?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 7, 2022

On Friday, the G7 announced a price cap on Russian oil. Russia quickly retaliated by…

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Job Growth Remains Strong – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 6, 2022

The administration warned that job growth would cool off in last Friday’s employment report. The…

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Good News May Not Be Good For Investors

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 2, 2022

Following Powell’s hawkish speech last Friday, investors are not happy. Their concern is that Powell…

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Got Lithium?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 1, 2022

Lithium is a key material in electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Not surprisingly, with the rampant…

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95 Billion a Month of Liquidity Drainage Starts Today

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 31, 2022

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet unwind, aka Quantitative Tightening (QT), ramps up today to 95…

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Two-Year Yields Highest Since 2007

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 30, 2022

Two-year Treasury note yields neared 3.50% yesterday, the highest level since 2007. At that time,…

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Energy Bill Crisis – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 29, 2022

Bloomberg recently published a disturbing article entitled- A ‘Tsunami of Shutoffs’: 20 Million US Homes…

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Fed Trial Balloon is Floating Over Jackson Hole

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 26, 2022

As we have noted, the Fed will often use the media, and in particular, Nick…

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Jackson Hole Conference Slows the Bulls

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 25, 2022

The recent market uptrend is stalling. The culprit is most likely the coming annual Jackson…

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Euro-Dollar Parity – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 24, 2022

For the first time in 20 years, the euro-dollar pair is trading below 1.00 (parity)….

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Meme Stocks On A Roller Coaster

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 23, 2022

In Monday’s commentary, we discussed how Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) shares rose almost five-fold…

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Blood Bath & Beyond – RIA

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 22, 2022

“Blood Bath” & Beyond (BBBY) was the latest meme stock to be forced into a…

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Short Covering Grinds To A Halt

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 19, 2022

Short covering has stopped. Over the last couple of days, markets have meandered as investors…

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UK CPI Threatens the “Peak CPI” Narrative

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 18, 2022

Stock markets have been on fire since the last round of inflation data which showed…

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A Housing Recession Is Upon Us

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 17, 2022

Recent housing data further confirms that the “Great Reopening” housing boom is morphing into a…

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Bull or Bear, Place Your Bets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 12, 2022

Sam Goldfarb of the Wall Street Journal adds to the debate the bulls and bears…

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Inflation Relief, At Last!

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 10, 2022

Finally, the BLS CPI report provided a bit of relief on the inflation front. Relief…

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Yield Curves and The Alarm They Are About to Trigger

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 10, 2022

Bond traders and economists pay close attention to various yield curves as they are good…

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NVDA Pre-announces Disappointing Earnings

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 9, 2022

NVIDIA (NVDA) and other chip makers are warning that chip sales are falling below expectations….

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NBER Recession Odds Fade With Strong Jobs Report

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 8, 2022

The economy added 528k jobs in July, almost 300k more than expected. With the much…

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High-Growth Stocks Tomorrow May Not Look Like Today’s

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 5, 2022

Traditionally high-growth companies are involved in new, life-changing technologies. Think of the now mature high-growth…

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FAANG Stocks Sales Are Slipping

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 4, 2022

The graph below from Crescat Capital shows that, in aggregate, the market-leading FAANG stocks saw…

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Gold Is Rising as Real Yields Fall

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 3, 2022

In just the last two weeks, gold prices have spiked by $85/ounce. Why? Some claim…

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ISM Prices Paid Plummets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 2, 2022

Other than lower commodity prices, there are few other indicators of cooling inflation. That is…

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Amazon Surges Ahead

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 1, 2022

On the heels of disappointing earnings news from fellow retailers (Walmart and Bed Bath and…

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Negative GDP Again – Are We In A Recession?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 29, 2022

For the second quarter in a row, GDP was negative. Second quarter GDP fell 0.9%…

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Inflation Fears Trump Recession Worries

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 28, 2022

market trading update

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WMT Strikes Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 27, 2022

A few months ago, we wrote the following about WMT’s first quarter earnings: “Walmart is…

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Tech Layoffs Dampening Employment Picture

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 26, 2022

On Monday, MarketWatch published Its the End of “Fantasyland” for Big Tech and its Workers,…

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Did Yields Peak?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 25, 2022

Bond investors have had a rough year. However, there is hope on the horizon. Despite…

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Yuan Stumbles, ECB Surprises, and Commodities Fall

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 22, 2022

Commodities were a sea of red yesterday as the Chinese Yuan stumbled, and the ECB…

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Is a Fed Pivot Rally In The Cards?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 21, 2022

Fed pivot? Zero Hedge shared a Bloomberg article yesterday titled “If The Fed Pivots Sooner…

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Savers Rejoice Over 3% Yields- Should They?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 20, 2022

Most stock and bond investors have been punished by the Fed’s aggressive monetary stance designed…

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Fed Meeting is Next Week- Buckle Up This Week

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 19, 2022

The graph below from Mott Capital Management warrants some caution heading into the next week’s…

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Fed Presidents Talk Down a 1% Rate Hike

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 18, 2022

On Thursday, Fed Presidents Bullard and Waller talked down market expectations for a 1% rate…

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JPM Braces For Recession

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 15, 2022

JP Morgan (JPM) kicked off the Q2 earnings season with disappointing results. JPM earnings per…

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Does The Consumer Price Index Augur a 1% Rate Hike?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 14, 2022

The Consumer Price Index, CPI, rose above last month’s figures and economists’ expectations. June’s inflation…

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Small Business Expectations Hit Record Lows

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 13, 2022

The latest NFIB- Small Business Optimism Survey fell for the sixth straight month. Per the…

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Gold Price Languishes, What’s Next?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 12, 2022

As we show below, gold (GLD gold ETF) prices have taken it on the chin…

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Earnings Season Is Upon Us. Are Estimates Too High?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 11, 2022

Earnings season starts next week, with banks and airlines leading the way. Last earnings season…

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Fertilizer Stocks Plummet With Agricultural Prices

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 8, 2022

The graph below shows the four largest fertilizer stocks (MOS, NTR, CF, and IPI) have…

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US Dollar Soars, Further Stifling Economic Growth

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 7, 2022

On Wednesday morning, the US Dollar hit a 20-year high. A strong dollar makes The…

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Corporate Bond Spreads Raise Concerns

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 6, 2022

During June, the BBB-rated investment-grade corporate bond index rose 25bps more than similar-maturity U.S. Treasury…

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The Bond Market Is Presenting Mixed Messages

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 5, 2022

Bond markets are presenting quite a conundrum for investors. Over the last three months, the…

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Gas Tax Holidays- Do They Work?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 1, 2022

As we roll into the Fourth of July holiday, we thought we would discuss another…

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Quarter End Window Dressing, Rebalancing, and Volatility

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 30, 2022

At the end of each quarter, markets often experience heightened volatility as institutional money managers…

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Inflation U-Turn Ahead

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 29, 2022

There are a growing number of signs that a u-turn in inflation rates may be…

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Dallas Fed, Yet Another Recession Warning

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 28, 2022

Yet another regional Fed manufacturing survey warns of economic contraction. On Monday, the Dallas Fed…

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Rate Increase Expectations Are Starting To Fall

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 27, 2022

Rate increase expectations for the Fed are starting to fall rapidly as recent evidence suggests…

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Market Fears Subside On Powell’s Testimony

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 24, 2022

Market fears subsided a bit over the past couple of days as Powell testified before…

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Powell Admits Possibility of Recession; Dudley Claims It’s Inevitable

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 23, 2022

Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday morning. He reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to…

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When Will “The Bottom” Be In? History Points to the Fed

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 22, 2022

The trillion-dollar question on nearly every investor’s mind lately is “When will the market bottom…

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Is A Tradable Bottom In Sight?

Written by Lance Roberts | Jun 21, 2022

The stock market is having its worst week since March 2020 when the Pandemic first…

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Philadelphia Fed, Like Atlanta Fed, Signals Weakness

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 17, 2022

On Wednesday, the Atlanta Fed revised its Q2 growth estimate to 0.0%. Yesterday, the Philadelphia…

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75bps Of Shock and Awe Calms Markets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 16, 2022

While the WSJ telegraphed the potential for a 75bps rate hike on Tuesday, the Fed’s…

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Inflation Expectations Are Flat- What Gives?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 15, 2022

The graph below shows that 5yr yields have risen over 2% in 2022. Many in…

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2yr Treasury Yields Soar

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 14, 2022

The graph below shows that 2yr Treasury yields rose 0.25% on Friday, the largest one-day…

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CPI – Onward and Upward

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 13, 2022

The BLS CPI Inflation report surprised the markets, coming in hotter than expected. The surprises…

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CFO Survey Points To Recession Risk

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 10, 2022

In Thursday’s Commentary, we share the World Bank’s warning about global stagflation. We follow up…

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World Bank Warns of Global Stagflation

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 9, 2022

The World Bank is out with a stern warning that the global economy may be…

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Target Warns Yet Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 8, 2022

In our May 19 Commentary, we shared commentary from Target’s CEO regarding the earnings and…

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Volatility Ahead: VIX Offers Caution To Investors

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 7, 2022

As measured by VIX, Volatility has been elevated throughout the current downward trend. Such is…

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Payrolls Report Shows Strong Labor Market

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 6, 2022

Unlike the weakening ADP Employment report, the BLS payrolls report highlights a very healthy labor…

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Lael Brainard Squashes Talk of a “Stall”

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 3, 2022

The following headline hit the wires Thursday morning: LAEL BRAINARD: VERY HARD TO SEE CASE…

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The QT Era Has Begun

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 2, 2022

Yesterday the Federal Reserve began shrinking its balance sheet, kicking off a new QT era….

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German Inflation Shock Pushes Yields Higher

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 1, 2022

Recent inflation data for Germany and Europe shocked economists on Monday, rising much more than…

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PCE Prices Offers Optimism Inflation Has Peaked

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 31, 2022

Like CPI, which was released two weeks ago, monthly PCE inflation was much lower than…

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Did Nvidia Signal a Change in Sentiment?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 27, 2022

Nvidia (NVDA) joins a long list of companies that reported decent earnings but reduced their…

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New Home Sales Plunge – Recession Evidence Strengthens

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 26, 2022

New home sales plummeted to an annualized rate of 591k, well below expectations of 750k….

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Snap Stock Mishap!

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 25, 2022

Social media company Snap’s stock fell over 40% in trading on Tuesday. Concerning us is…

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Bear Market Expectations

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 24, 2022

Last Friday, the S&P 500 briefly dipped to 3810, marking a 20.5% decline from its…

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Exxon and Energy Stocks Are On Fire

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 23, 2022

It is no secret that Exxon and the energy sector, in general, have been the…

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Financial Instability- Junk Bond Spreads Perking Up

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 20, 2022

The Fed pays a lot of attention to financial stability or market functioning, and they…

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Consumers Are Struggling

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 19, 2022

Another day and another stern warning that consumers are struggling. Below we provide details on…

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Walmart Slumps As Inflation Takes Its Toll

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 18, 2022

Walmart posted earnings per share of $1.30, much weaker than expectations for $1.48. While the…

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Empire State Survey Warns of Economic Contraction

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 17, 2022

The May New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell sharply into economic contraction levels…

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Strong Finish to a Volatile Week for Stocks

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 16, 2022

The S&P 500 capped off last week on a positive note with a rally to…

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PPI and CPI: Are They Peaking?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 13, 2022

Producer prices (PPI) for April met expectations rising .5%. While .5% is a big monthly…

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Bill Dudley Bashes The Fed

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 12, 2022

Ex-New York Fed President Bill Dudley seems to have it out for the Fed. Despite…

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Investor Sentiment Is Horrendous- Is That A Bullish Sign?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 11, 2022

Often markets bottom when investor sentiment is poor and peak when it’s high. As they…

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Fear is Driving Yields Higher, Not Inflation

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 10, 2022

Fear, not inflation, is driving bond yields higher despite popular beliefs. The graph below shows…

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Fat Tails Scare Investors

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 9, 2022

The S&P 500 was down seven points this past week. Last week’s extreme volatility made…

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ETSY Falls Victim to Strapped Consumers

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 6, 2022

Shares of ETSY plunged yesterday on a poor quarterly earnings report. We are not very…

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Expectations Met – The Fed Delivers

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 5, 2022

Meeting market expectations, the Fed raised rates by 50bps and will start Quantitative Tightening (QT)…

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Powell Is In The Batters Box

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 4, 2022

The consensus is that Jerome Powell and the Fed will raise interest rates by 50bps…

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ISM- Bad News Is Good News?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 3, 2022

The national ISM Manufacturing Survey was unexpectedly weaker than expected, as shown below. This should…

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Stocks Slump as Amazon Weighs on the Market

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 2, 2022

Shares of Amazon, the third-largest contributor to the S&P 500, fell over 10% on Friday….

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GDP Falls As Inflation Takes Hold

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 29, 2022

First-quarter GDP fell by 1.4% versus expectations for a 1.1% increase. As we discussed in…

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Apple Inc. Earnings Warnings Fall on Deaf Ears

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 28, 2022

Apple Inc. will release its earnings after the close today. Apple Inc. is the largest…

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Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecasts Negligable Growth

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 27, 2022

The robust 6.9% GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 will likely hit a…

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Earnings Releases Straight Ahead: Buckle Up!

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 26, 2022

Many companies, including the largest in the United States, will release Q1 earnings this week….

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Gap Gaps Lower On Poor Earnings

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 25, 2022

Gap stock (GPS) fell 20%, proving another victim of poor earnings. Executives blame supply line…

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Home Mortgage Rates Weigh On Home Prices

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 22, 2022

The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.11% this week. The last time…

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Netflix Plummets… Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 21, 2022

Shares of Netflix (NFLX) lost over a third of their value on Wednesday after announcing…

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Homebuilders Are Not Scared By Higher Mortgage Rates

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 20, 2022

Despite mortgage rates nearing 5.50%, new homebuilders continue to file for building permits, and they…

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Uninverted Yield Curve- Are We Out Of The Woods?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 19, 2022

Many economists have warned that an inverted yield curve will lead to a recession. The…

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Twitter: Another Arrow in Musk’s Quiver?

Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 18, 2022

After announcing he took a 9.2% stake in Twitter a few weeks ago, Elon Musk…

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Happy Easter

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 15, 2022

Michael, I, and the entire staff at RIA Advisors wanted to take this special day…

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Salaries Lag Inflation: Foretelling Economic Weakness

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 14, 2022

The latest round of CPI inflation data confirms a troubling situation for many workers. Salaries,…

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Treasury Auction Scares Bond Investors

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 13, 2022

Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury auctioned off $34 billion of ten-year notes. Despite yields rising sharply…

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Energy Stocks or Crude Oil – Which Is Right?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 12, 2022

Within today’s Commentary, we point out a few concerning market divergences. We lead with the…

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Dudley Says Lower Stock Prices Will Tame Inflation

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 11, 2022

If you think the Fed is hawkish, you ain’t seen nothing yet. In a Bloomberg…

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Conagra Warns About Inflation

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 8, 2022

With first-quarter earnings announcements starting soon, investors are trying to figure out how inflation will…

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Transportation Index Bears Watching

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 7, 2022

The Dow Jones Transportation Index is down about 12% in just the last seven days,…

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Brainard Scares Investors with QT

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 6, 2022

In Monday’s Commentary, we wrote: “Keep an eye on Fed speeches for any guidance on…

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Musk Takes A Stake in Twitter

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 5, 2022

Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, announced he has accumulated a 9% stake in Twitter (TWTR). Shares…

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Yield Curve Inverts On Strong Employment Report

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 4, 2022

The most followed U.S. Treasury yield curve, 2yr vs. the 10yr, is now solidly inverted….

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Crude Oil Prices Fall As Biden Releases More Oil

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 1, 2022

Crude oil prices tumbled Thursday as President Biden announced the DOE would release 1 million…

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Restoration Hardware Has Telling Commentary

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 31, 2022

Restoration Hardware (RH) stock is trading over 10% lower as it missed earnings expectations despite…

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Consumer Confidence Rises

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 30, 2022

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index unexpectedly rose to 107.2, from 105.7. Despite the increase…

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Yield Curve Recession Warning

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 29, 2022

The U.S. Treasury yield curve continues to flatten and, in some cases, invert and therefore…

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VIX Fades Despite A Wall Of Worry

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 28, 2022

The VIX index gauging expected equity volatility is normalizing despite a sharp pick-up in yields,…

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Chips Ahoy! Semiconductor Stocks Lead the Way

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 25, 2022

On Thursday, Nvidia (NVDA) led the market and other chip stocks higher. It appears chip…

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Adobe Shares Fall Due to the Russian Conflict

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 24, 2022

So far, it has been predominately the defense, materials, agricultural, and energy companies most affected…

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Yield Surge Yet Stocks Rally On

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 23, 2022

Over the last few months, bond yields have surged higher. Higher yields are a tax…

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Interest Rate Cuts On The Horizon

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 22, 2022

On Monday, Powell reiterated the need to normalize monetary policy. Per his speech: “There is…

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Positive Note As The S&P 500 Rallies On Fed

Written by Nick Lane | Mar 21, 2022

The S&P 500 capped off last week on a positive note with a strong rally…

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Equities Rally into Quadruple Witching

Written by Nick Lane | Mar 18, 2022

As we anticipated, stocks are rallying out of the FOMC meeting after fears of a…

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Fed Funds Upped by .25% as Fed Embarks on Tightening Path

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 17, 2022

On March 3, 2020, the Federal Reserve reduced its Fed Funds rate and bought Treasury…

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Gold and Oil Prices Tumble As The War Premium Fades

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 16, 2022

The recent surge in gold and oil prices has been erased. While the Russian invasion…

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Death Cross and Recession Warnings

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 15, 2022

The S&P 500 just flashed a death cross. A death cross is a bearish technical…

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Consumer Sentiment Survey Worsens Driving Recession Concerns

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 14, 2022

Not surprisingly, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey fell again. The index hit 59.7…

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Inflation Rate Rises to 40 Year Highs

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 11, 2022

The CPI year-over-year inflation rate, propelled by rising gas and used car prices, rose to…

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OPEC to the Rescue

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 10, 2022

Stocks rallied on Wednesday as the Financial Times reported that the UAE will call upon…

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Gold and Nickel- The Latest Commodities to Surge

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 9, 2022

Gold was up $80 an ounce at its peak yesterday, and nickel prices catapulted higher,…

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QE Is Dead, Long Live QE

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 8, 2022

The Fed will officially end the latest round of QE on Wednesday. The schedule below…

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Wheat Prices Further Stoke Inflation Concerns

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 7, 2022

While the media and public heavily focus on surging oil prices, wheat and other grain…

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BLS Employment Report This Morning

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 4, 2022

The BLS will release February’s employment report at 8:30 ET this morning. Current expectations, as…

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Oil Soars, Powell Speaks, and Stocks Rebound

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 3, 2022

Stocks rebounded despite a somewhat hawkish Congressional testimony by Powell and soaring crude oil prices….

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Invasion and Inflation- The Fed is Cornered

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 2, 2022

Chairman Powell will testify to Congress today and tomorrow and is likely to face many…

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Asset Volatility Continues As Peace Seems Tricky

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 1, 2022

The wild volatility in many asset classes continues as the Russian invasion trudges on. Peace…

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Stock Volatility Reigns Supreme

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 28, 2022

Stocks are being whipped around as volatility wreaks havoc on bulls and bears alike. The…

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Russian Stock Market Plummets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 25, 2022

If you think U.S. stocks are trading poorly, you may feel better looking at the…

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Russia Invades

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 24, 2022

“Russia Invades Ukraine” is the media headline this morning as the thing concerning investors finally…

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Technical Difficulties

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 23, 2022

Due to technical difficulties last night, there will be no daily commentary today. The daily…

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Bulls Dwindle As The Fed Prepares to Buckle Down

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 21, 2022

As we noted on Friday, the latest AAII Sentiment Survey reflects a decrease in bullish…

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Gold and Bonds Run As The War Drums Beat

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 18, 2022

The on and off again Russian invasion of Ukraine is heating back up, and with…

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Viacom – The Latest Earnings Victim

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 17, 2022

Viacom (VIAC) joins Meta, Netflix, and a host of other companies that saw double-digit declines…

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Russia Withdraws Troops and Stocks Rally

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 16, 2022

Stock prices have been on a roller coaster, tracking the ebbs and flows of a…

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Energy Stocks Finally Break

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 15, 2022

Energy stocks have finally taken a break from their upwards progress as they led the…

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Russian Invasion of Kyiv Helps Gold and Oil

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 14, 2022

Rumors were flying on Friday that a likely invasion of Kyiv by the Russians is…

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Bond Investors Fret: Bullard Calls for 100bps by July

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 11, 2022

Bond investors panicked yesterday on higher than expected inflation. The most noticeable yield changes occurred…

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Bostic Downplays Inflation and Stocks Run

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 10, 2022

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, one of the more dovish members of the FOMC, anticipates…

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Markets Calm Ahead of the CPI Storm

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 9, 2022

Thus far in February, the volatility in markets is calm compared to the violent sessions…

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Treasury Yields Hitting Key Levels

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 8, 2022

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is approaching 2%. The last time 10-year Treasury…

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Earnings Volatility And A Red Hot Labor Market

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 7, 2022

Individual stocks continue to show extreme volatility around their respective earnings announcements. The latest round…

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Meta And The BOE Lead Markets Lower

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 4, 2022

Stocks traded lower Thursday in large part due to Meta (Facebook) and the Bank of…

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Paypal Plummets, Meta Dumps, and Google Soars

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 3, 2022

This earnings season seems to be generating more volatility than is typical. Yesterday’s earnings releases…

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UPS Helps The S&P 500 To A Third Straight Gain

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 2, 2022

Shares of UPS rose 15% on Tuesday after reporting better than expected earnings. In addition,…

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Debate At The Fed- QT Or Rate Hikes

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 1, 2022

It appears there is a brewing debate at the Fed regarding how to normalize monetary…

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The Russell 2000 Enters a Bear Market

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 31, 2022

The Russell 2000 Index, a composite of small stocks, closed Thursday down more than 20%…

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Market Volatility Rules The Day

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 28, 2022

For those of you following the markets day and night, as we do, you likely…

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Powell “Sooner and Faster” Shakes Markets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 27, 2022

The moment Jerome Powell said the Fed will remove assets from their balance sheet “sooner…

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Stocks Or Inflation? The Fed Has A Choice To Make

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 26, 2022

At 2 pm ET, the Fed will conclude its FOMC policy meeting and inform us…

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Extreme Volatility May Be Here For A While

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 25, 2022

The S&P exhibited extreme volatility throughout the day on Monday. The market opened weaker and…

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Stocks Bounce Around But End Down In Front Of The Fed

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 24, 2022

Stocks bounced around Friday as investors look ahead to Wednesday’s important FOMC meeting. Fueling some…

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Peleton – Another Lockdown Winner is Losing

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 21, 2022

Over the past year, many stocks that benefited from the Pandemic lockdowns have given up…

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Small-Cap Stocks Struggle Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 20, 2022

The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Stock index continues to struggle. On Wednesday, it fell 1.56% and…

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Goldman Sachs Shares Tumble as Wages Soar

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 19, 2022

Shares of Goldman Sachs tumbled Tuesday as earnings fell $1.30 short of expectations and were…

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No Vaccine Mandate Is Bad News For Vaccine Makers

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 18, 2022

Pfizer and Moderna shares struggled on Friday as the Supreme Court overturned a federal (OSHA)…

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Airline Stocks Soar Despite Market Turbulence

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 14, 2022

Airline stocks took off on Thursday on the back of better than expected earnings from…

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7-Percent Inflation, What Will The Fed Do?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 13, 2022

Inflation is now running at 7-percent, well above the Fed 2% objective. Following the CPI…

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The CPI Report Is Coming, Prepare For Volatility

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 12, 2022

At 8:30 am ET, the BLS will release the December CPI Report. Expectations are for…

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Small-Cap Stocks Are On Thin Ice

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 11, 2022

While the large-cap indexes trended higher throughout 2021, small-cap stocks (IWM) spent most of the…

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GameStop Dumps As Speculative Fever Fades

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 10, 2022

Investor exuberance for speculative investments is increasingly waning. For instance, GameStop (GME) surged 25% in…

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Is A Value Rotation Afoot?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 7, 2022

As we enter 2022, we wonder if this is the year we finally see a…

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The Hawkish Fed Scares Investors

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 6, 2022

The Fed minutes from their December 14-15th meeting, released yesterday, show a heightened concern with…

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Ford Is Starting To Trade Like Tesla

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 5, 2022

Ford (F) is following Tesla’s path. Tesla shares surged on Monday after they released strong…

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Bonds Struggle On The First Day of 2022

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 4, 2022

Bonds struggled Monday following a couple of solid days to close out 2021. Ten-Year UST…

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Recency Bias May Be 2022’s Biggest Hazard

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 3, 2022

As many investors look ahead to what 2022 may bring, they tend to rely on…

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Goodbye To 2021 & Hello 2022

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 31, 2021

As we say goodbye to 2021, we want to offer our sincere thank you for…

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ARKK & Early ’21 Winners Falling Out of Favor

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 30, 2021

The winning stocks of early 2021 are falling out of favor. Below we discuss how…

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Omicron Spreads as the Market Takes a Breather

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 29, 2021

The S&P 500 snapped a four-day winning streak Tuesday as technology and health care stocks…

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Santa delivered an all time high

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 28, 2021

Markets rallied on Monday following this weekend’s strong retail sales data from Mastercard. Despite canceled…

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Merry Christmas From Wall Street

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 24, 2021

Wall Street wished stock investors a merry Christmas on Christmas Eve. The S&P closed Thursday…

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Omicron Fears Ease Pushing Stocks Upward

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 23, 2021

Despite the surging number of Covid cases, investors’ Omicron fears appear to be easing. It…

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Negative Market Narratives Are Forgotten

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 22, 2021

Monday’s negative market narratives, Omicron, and the failure of Biden’s BBB spending package didn’t phase…

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Manchin and Omicron and Bears, Oh My!

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 21, 2021

Senator Manchin and Omicron and bears are weighing on investor sentiment heading into the holiday-shortened…

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GM And Ford Are Gunning For Tesla

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 20, 2021

GM is now shipping Hummer EV pickup trucks. Ford is halting reservations on its electric…

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Hawkish Fed Policy, On Second Thought, Is That Bullish?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 17, 2021

It seems the market may have second thoughts about the acceleration of the hawkish Fed…

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The Fed Doubled Taper Plans and Introduces Rate Hikes

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 16, 2021

In a decidedly hawkish statement, the Fed doubled taper plans. Additionally, they plan to hike…

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Will Chairman Jerome Powell Play the Grinch Today?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 15, 2021

At 2 pm ET, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues will alter monetary policy….

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High Dividend Stocks Take The Day

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 14, 2021

High dividend stocks rose yesterday despite weakness in the major indexes. The weakness in the…

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Inflation is Running Hot and Investors Don’t Care

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 13, 2021

The BLS gave us our monthly reminder that inflation is running hot. CPI is now…

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Bitcoin and Stocks Take A Breather

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 10, 2021

Bitcoin and stocks fell in light trading yesterday. As we show below from SimpleVisor, Bitcoin…

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Apple Stock Hits A Record High On “Nightmare” News

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 9, 2021

Apple stock rose 2.25% yesterday to close over $175, a new all-time high. Shares in…

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Technology Stocks Lead the Way Higher

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 8, 2021

Technology stocks led the markets higher on Tuesday. With little news on the tape, it…

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The Fed Pivots and Stocks Surge

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 7, 2021

Yesterday morning an ominous Wall Street Journal article warned investors that the Fed will speed…

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Are Value Stocks In Vogue?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 6, 2021

Are value stocks in vogue? The price action of the last few days screams yes….

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Oil Prices Plummet Then Rally In A Bullish Sign

Written by Michael Lebowitz | Dec 3, 2021

Oil prices plummeted 5% yesterday morning as OPEC went ahead with a planned output hike…

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The Omicron Variant Flips Stocks From Green To Red

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 2, 2021

News of the Omicron Variant showing up in California shook investors and pushed stocks from…

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Powell Retires “Transitory” Inflation and the Market’s Fret

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 1, 2021

Jerome Powell has been using the words “transitory inflation” to characterize the recent bout of…

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Cyber Monday Stock Sales Entice Investors

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 30, 2021

Cyber Monday stock gains erased a good chunk of Black Friday’s losses. Fear of another…

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Black Friday Sales Hit The Markets As Omicron Emerges

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 29, 2021

The typical uneventful post-Thanksgiving Friday trading session was anything but that. Black Friday market discounts…

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Jobless Claims Plunge To 52 Year Lows

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 26, 2021

As we show below, Initial Jobless Claims plunged to a level last seen in 1969….

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The NASDAQ Is On A Losing Streak

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 24, 2021

The NASDAQ was lower by over one percent at lunchtime but cut its losses in…

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Did Jerome Powell Just Mark The Market Top?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 23, 2021

President Biden renominated Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for another four years as the head of…

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The Euro Tumbles as Covid Cases Surge

Written by Michael Lebowitz | Nov 22, 2021

The Euro continues to tumble versus the dollar as Covid cases in Europe are spiking….

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FAANG Stocks Keep The S&P 500 Afloat

Written by Michael Lebowitz | Nov 19, 2021

Thanks to the FAANG stocks, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were higher on the day….

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The Next Big Shock

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 18, 2021

Fed’s Williams says “we must think about how to shore up the Treasury Market so…

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Crypto’s Crash and Stocks Head Higher

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 17, 2021

“Crypto’s Crash,” says some financial news headlines. The reality is Bitcoin, Ethereum and others are…

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